Tel Aviv Notes - No. 177 July 13, 2006
The Confrontation with Hizbullah
Shlomo Brom
Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies
The Hizbullah operation that resulted in the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and the death of eight others has
ignited a major confrontation between that organization and Israel. Unlike previous clashes in recent years, in which it
could be expected that the clash would be short-lived because of the interest of both sides preventing escalation and
returning to acceptable rules of the game, the provocation and its consequences are too great this time to allow Israel
to return to the status quo ante. That would signal to Hizbullah and other factors operating against Israel that they
can carry out ever-greater provocations without incurring a major response.
This operation was not a bolt from the blue. Hizbullah has repeatedly broadcast its intention to kidnap Israeli soldiers
in order to secure the freedom of Lebanese prisoners remaining in Israeli hands even after the so-called “Tenenbaum
deal,” and it tried and failed several times before the its recent success. It is also likely that the timing of this
operation was tied to developments in the Gaza Strip. After all, Hizbullah is fully aware of the need for domestic
Lebanese and Arab legitimacy for its operations and it senses that when Israel is battling Palestinians and the Arab and
international television screens are full of images of Israel striking at Palestinians, it can more easily justify its
own actions. That may explain why its first operation following Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon in the spring of
2000, in which it carried off the bodies of two Israeli soldiers, was mounted shortly after the outbreak of the second
intifada.
But this latest attack is a blatant violation of the rules established after that action in late 2000. According to
these rules, Hizbullah acts only against military forces and only in the Mount Dov (Shab’a Farms) sector, and Israel
responds in kind. This time, the operation took place in the western sector of the border and included the shelling of
Israeli civilian settlements. Hizbullah might have refrained from launching this operation if Israel had reacted more
vigorously to previous Hizbullah attempts to breach the rules, which are based on mutual deterrence. Both sides have the
capacity to inflict serious damage on the other’s civilian population, and Hizbullah is fully aware that since the
Israeli withdrawal, it has no domestic support for actions that can escalate and lead to serious damage in Lebanon,
thereby setting back the lengthy reconstruction process in that country.
Many of the international constraints on Israeli reactions have diminished since the withdrawal. In responding to this
latest attack, Israel has apparently set for itself several objectives. The first is to exact a high price, both
directly – by inflicting casualties on Hizbullah – and politically – by striking at Lebanese targets such as electricity
plants and Beirut Airport and by cutting off the south from the rest of the country in order to undermine Hizbullah’s
political standing. The assumption behind those strikes is that internal pressure on Hizbullah will force it to restrain
itself and ultimately disarm. All this is meant to rehabilitate Israeli deterrence in Lebanon.
The second aim is to prompt international pressure on Hizbullah’s Syrian and Iranian patrons so that those countries,
too, will also act to restrain Hizbullah, on the assumption that the international community wants to avoid another
implosion in Lebanon. The third is to inflict a serious blow on Hizbullah’s ability to hit civilian targets in Israel.
It may be true that here, as in Gaza, Israel cannot completely eliminate the threat of rocket fire, but since 2000,
there has been a marked improvement in the IDF’s capacity to locate launch teams, which once enjoyed virtual immunity
because of their low signature, and there is a reasonable prospect that those teams will now be much more vulnerable,
like their Palestinian counterparts in Gaza.
It is unclear whether Israel’s current response will actually produce the desired effects and it may be compelled to
escalate even further, particularly since Hizbullah also has the means for more destructive action, to which it has not
yet resorted. For example, the organization possesses long-range rockets supplied by Iran and Syria with which,
according to Israeli intelligence, it can hit cities inside Israel as far south as Hadera. Their range covers sensitive
targets such as the city of Haifa and the industrial zone in Haifa Bay. If Hizbullah decides to react to attacks on
Beirut with these weapons, a much greater escalation can be expected.
Israel would then have several options available. It could intensify its strikes on Beirut and other Lebanese cities,
but in that case Israel would have to walk a fine line between achieving effects and causing damage so widespread that
the international reaction would minimize the chances of accomplishing its aims. Israel could also expand the fighting
to Syria, which serves as Hizbullah’s main source of weapons, both from Syria and from Iran. Thus far, Syria has paid no
price for its policies but its military weakness makes it very vulnerable to Israeli air strikes. Finally, Israel could
target Iran’s interests and presence in Lebanon.
Moreover, Israel might well initiate ground operations in south Lebanon and perhaps other areas, as well. Such
operations would be a low-priority choice because Israel has no desire to get sucked back into the Lebanese quagmire and
understands the implications of a prolonged physical presence there. But they could take the form of time-bound
incursions, like those mounted in Gaza, intended to draw out Hizbullah forces and inflict casualties on them.
In any event, the confrontation this time is likely to be protracted and involve substantial costs for Israel because of
Hizbullah capabilities, which far outstrip those of the Palestinians. The costs could include significant casualties and
the disruption of normal life in a broad swath of Israeli territory, which would put the public’s resilience to the
test. The duration of the confrontation will also be function of the ambitiousness of Israeli goals. If Israel aims at
completely disarming Hizbullah by itself, the goal could well prove elusive, and Israel may have to content itself with
implementing new rules, such as moving Hizbullah further away from the border, and hoping that the current confrontation
will stimulate domestic political processes in Lebanon that could eventually, albeit indirectly, accomplish the more
far-reaching objective.
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