Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – 26 August '05

Direct Link To This Week's Lobby Edition:
http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/0508/MandF26Aug05L.pdf

In the latest edition:

Rolling average poll
Poll cut

The effect of National's tax policy announcement is partially reflected in the Digipoll and not at all in the NBR one, but even so they give a snapshot of the mountain National was asking that policy to scale.

More policy confusion, this time over native forest logging, with Dr Brash seemingly over-riding not only his spokesman but also his caucus’s settled policy - even though it had not been to the board for final approval - is not going to help. And that on a day when Prime Minister Helen Clark was campaigning with another sure bet coalition partner, Jim Anderton ...

The numbers for the ‘threshold parties’ are:

Labour 43.35
National 37.30
NZ First 6.8
Greens 5.8

A centre-left Government is under starter's orders. It is extraordinary that so many commentators are mithering on about a mood for change and a neck and neck race. Although National has hoovered up most of the centre-right vote, the LPG grouping has virtually the same support as it had in the outgoing Parliament.

There is still little sign of any major move among the minnows, and the mood must be getting very dire at ACT headquarters – and it is hard to see how Donna Awatere- Huata’s conviction will make things better.

The holes have been found in National’s campaign. Apart from policy issues, it has played expectations poorly - it should have been openly playing down Dr Brash’s chances in the TV debates so that viewers scored a pleasant surprise at a competent performance. Scheduling has caused missed appearances and there doesn’t seem to be any answer to questions about where a majority coalition will come from.

LPG STARTS ITS ENGINE

The gaps is widening in the rolling average poll of polls and the odds on an LPG govenrment are beginning to shorten,

PREFU

The Pre-Election Fiscal Update allowed both parties more room to move - as we’ve been arguing for ages. But there might not be as much room as they are taking. [Page 2]

MEDIA TATTLE

The axe swings as One News loses its edge in metropolitan ratings. [Page 3]

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