Molesworth & Featherston (Weekend) – 5 August 2005

In the latest edition:

Rolling average poll
Labour brash, National shy

The turnaround in Labour’s fortunes in the rash of polls at the end of last week have shot it back in front in our rolling poll of polls, leaving it with a new-found confidence; and all the options. So the numbers are (assuming sitting leaders are returned in their electorates):

percent seats

Labour 40.60 51
National 38.79 48
NZ First 7.27 9
Greens 5.49 7
Maori 2.15 3
United Future 1.79 2
Progressive 0.26 1
Act 1.29 0
Destiny 0.55 0

As it has been most of the year, National is short of a majority even with the help of both New Zealand First and United Future. On the other side a Labour-Progressives-Green (LPG) Government, favoured by PM Clark because of the certainty of the parties’ allegiances, can scrape together 59 seats.

Alternatively, Labour, New Zealand First and Progressive could just make it, unless there is a big overhang from the Maori Party winning more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to.

The worry for National now is that polls showing its fortunes sliding were all but completed before Labour's king-hit on student loans. So the lead might increase even more. Meanwhile the Green Party is worried that a chunk of its strong yoof and university vote, which it was trying to bolster with a generous student loan policy, may have decamped to Labour. It is busy trying to refocus student opinion on its own even more generous package, while stressing it will be needed to help Labour deliver. In the meantime we suspect the Greens’ are in real danger of slipping under 5 per cent in the next few polls.

MORE STOPPAGES

The fresh pace of industrial action is continuing and the Employment Relations Authority issues a long-awaited ruling. [Pages 4 & 5].

TRADE DEALS

One trade more trade partner signed up to the p-4 deal, and a deal with malaysia is racing closer. [Page 3].

SICK OF THE ELECTION?

Tough luck, we’ve got tons, including the next big moves and the the players’s darkest fears.

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