Scoop Images: 2004 Exit Poll "Red Shift" As Seen In Vote Numbers
By Alastair Thompson with Ed Shalom
The following analysis was suggested to Scoop as a response to the Scoop article "Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions" concerning the discrepancies between the 2004 US exit polls and the Presidential election's actual results.
The exit polls showed Democrat John Kerry winning the election comfortably, but the actual election recorded Republican
President George Bush winning by over 3 million votes.
Democratic Underground forum member Ed Shalom suggested illustrating the observed State by State "Red Shift" (the difference between the US
2004 General Election exit polls - conducted by Edison Mitofsky - and the actual results) in terms of actual numbers of
votes rather than simply as percentages.
As some US States have considerably more voters than others this image enables the reader to view where and how many
votes were picked up by George Bush over and above what he was expected to receive in the 4pm and 12pm versions of the
Edison-Mitofsky (National Election Pool) exit polls.
The numbers are obtained simply by multiplying total Presidential votes cast per state by the "red shift" percentage.
When presented in this way the data - both the 4pm data and the 12pm data used in the Freeman analysis(see below) -
shows a remarkable conclusion, three of the four biggest vote "red shifts" occurred in the three battleground states of
Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Notably the two giants in terms of Democratic Party vote bookend the series with New
York showing the biggest gain in Bush vote numbers vs the exit polls and California showing the biggest vote loss.
Coincidentally Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio were also the three states addressed in the academic paper "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy" by Dr Stephen F. Freeman. In this paper Dr Freeman discusses the use and methodology of exit polls extensively. He concludes that the odds of
the level of variation from exit polls to actuals occurring in these three states as did so was 250 million to one.
(note: Dr Freeman has agreed with critics of his report that this may overstate the case a little, but the odds of this
occurring remain very very low and statistically speaking near impossibility.)
Dr Freeman ends his report saying:
"Systematic fraud or mistabulation is a premature conclusion, but the election's unexplained exit poll discrepancies
make it an unavoidable hypothesis, one that is the responsibility of the media, academia, polling agencies, and the
public to investigate."
To date no major US mainstream media outlet (with the sole exception of Keith Olbermann's Countdown show on MSNBC) has
addressed the exit poll issue in spite of the fact that the data used in the exit polls was commissioned by them.
***************** For more background and the latest news links on this news subject see also Scoop's A Very American Coup Special Feature
*************
THE GRAPHS & DATA
Red Shift = (Bush Final Margin - Bush Exit Poll Margin)/2
Red Shift Votes = Red Shift * Presidential Votes Cast 4pm Data (via DUer TruthIsAll)
Click for big version
The 4pm 2004 Exit Poll Bush "Red Shift" In Percentage Terms
Click for big version
The 4pm 2004 Exit Poll Bush "Red Shift" In Terms Of Pure Vote Numbers
12pm Data (via Jonathan Simon)
Click for big version
The 12pm 2004 Exit Poll Bush "Red Shift" In Percentage Terms
Click for big version
The 12pm 2004 Exit Poll Bush "Red Shift" In Terms Of Pure Vote Numbers
NOTE THIS VERSION USES THE JONATHAN SIMON DATA 12pm Exit Poll Data rather than the 4pm data which is probably less accurate.
Figures for the "red shift" in the States of NY, NJ, NC and Virginia are estimated by halving the 4pm figures as the
official 12pm data has not been publicly released.
DATA FROM THE 4pm DATA VOTE NUMBER GRAPH IN TABULAR FORM
State
Total Vote
Shift %
State
Shift Votes
New York
6,911,675
4
NY
276467
Florida
7,609,810
3
FL
228294.3
Pennsylvania
5,676,212
3.35
PA
190153.102
Ohio
5,481,804
3.1
OH
169935.924
North Carolina
3,500,998
4
NC
140039.92
Illinois
5,236,384
2
IL
104727.68
Massachusetts
2,888,068
3.5
MA
101082.38
Minnesota
2,828,387
3
MN
84851.61
Virginia
3,198,366
2.5
VA
79959.15
South Carolina
1,619,908
4.5
SC
72895.86
Wisconsin
2,992,390
2
WI
59847.8
Connecticut
1,578,385
3.5
CT
55243.475
New Jersey
3,437,013
1.5
NJ
51555.195
Arizona
2,013,080
2.5
AZ
50327
Georgia
3,298,790
1.5
GA
49481.85
Michigan
4,832,170
1
MI
48321.7
Delaware
861,739
5
DE
43086.95
Washington
2,852,876
1.45
WA
41366.702
Missouri
2,727,709
1.5
MO
40915.635
Louisiana
1,943,106
2
LA
38862.12
Indiana
2,468,002
1.5
IN
37020.03
Mississippi
1,125,304
3.25
MS
36572.38
Alabama
861,739
4
AL
34469.56
New Hampshire
677,662
4.9
NH
33205.438
Colorado
2,054,498
1.6
CO
32871.968
Nebraska
770,328
4.25
NE
32738.94
Utah
861,739
2.5
UT
21543.475
Kentucky
1,793,867
1
KY
17938.67
Iowa
1,496,214
1.15
IA
17206.461
Vermont
312,309
5
VT
15615.45
Rhode Island
437,126
3.5
RI
15299.41
Idaho
596,867
2.5
ID
14921.675
Oklahoma
1,463,758
1
OK
14637.58
New Mexico
756,040
1.8
NM
13608.72
West Virginia
746,309
1.75
WV
13060.4075
Alaska
309,379
4
AK
12375.16
Maryland
2,383,885
0.5
MD
11919.425
Arkansas
1,044,418
1.1
AR
11488.598
Nevada
829,583
0.85
NV
7051.4555
Maine
740,070
0.75
ME
5550.525
Wyoming
243,428
2
WY
4868.56
D. C.
205,854
0.5
DC
1029.27
Montana
449,666
-0.25
MT
-1124.165
Hawaii
429,013
-1.2
HI
-5148.156
South Dakota
388,215
-1.75
SD
-6793.7625
North Dakota
312,833
-2.5
ND
-7820.825
Kansas
312,833
-2.5
KS
-7820.825
Oregon
1,810,981
-0.8
OR
-14487.848
Tennessee
2,431,291
-1.5
TN
-36469.365
Texas
7,392,787
-1.5
TX
-110891.805
California
11,499,181
-1.5
CA
-172487.715
**** ENDS ****