Hospital specialist shortage grimmer than figures suggest

14 December 2015

Hospital specialist shortage even grimmer than latest figures suggest, says ASMS

“The information released today is more confirmation of serious doctor shortages in our public hospitals – but the situation is even grimmer than these latest figures suggest,” says Ian Powell, Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS).

“If New Zealand is to maintain a high quality and well-functioning public health system in the years ahead, we need to be actively increasing our recruitment of hospital specialists by more than 100 a year. That’s in addition to filling any gaps that already exist within the medical workforce.”

He was commenting on the Labour Party’s release of Ministry of Health information about district health boards’ financial performance, obtained under the Official Information Act. Labour’s health spokesperson Annette King says this shows that hospitals around the country are cutting back on staff as they grapple with multi-million dollar deficits, leaving health boards short of 158 doctors (http://campaign.labour.org.nz/hospitals_reduce_doctor_numbers_as_financial_strain_continues).

Mr Powell says the figure of 158 appears to include doctors at the start of their medical careers – resident medical officers (‘junior’ doctors) – as well as public hospital specialists. Intuitively the majority are likely to be specialists. But this data significantly understates the real level of hospital specialist shortages because it only refers to officially recognised vacancies. Actual shortages are much greater than this and are covered by specialists working excessive hours including while they are sick.

In 2010, New Zealand’s district health boards and the ASMS agreed to use Australia as a benchmark for senior medical workforce numbers. Australia’s population is of a similar age structure as New Zealand’s, both countries have a roughly similar balance of hospital specialists to general practitioners, and a similar number of nurses per population.

Workforce data indicated Australia would have an estimated 1.5 specialists per 1000 population by the year 2021. For New Zealand to be on a par with Australia by that time, New Zealand would need about 7,300 specialists in total, including about 6,060 DHB-employed specialists.

“In order for DHBs to achieve the target of 6,060 specialists by 2021, an estimated annual net growth of 278 specialists is needed from March 2015,” says Ian Powell. “However, DHB data over the past five years show an annual average increase of just 171 specialists.

“Whichever way you cut it, it’s blindingly obviously that we’re seriously short of the number of hospital specialists needed to provide the health care New Zealanders expect in the years ahead. In fact, the situation looks even bleaker when you consider New Zealand has a greater health need than Australia in a number of areas, such as cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes.”

A detailed ASMS analysis of the senior workforce shortages was published last year and is available at http://www.asms.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Taking-the-temperature-of-the-public-hospital-specialist-workforce-August-2014-FINAL.pdf

ENDS

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