Government figures mask true level of medical workforce need

Government figures mask true level of medical workforce need

“The Government’s latest figures on the state of the medical workforce overlook one essential fact – New Zealand needs an extra 100 senior doctors every year on top of the modest increases we’re seeing in the health workforce,” says Ian Powell, Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS).

“While increases of any size in the medical workforce are a step in the right direction, it’s incorrect for the Government to trumpet its latest workforce findings as a success story.

“The reality is that we have an aging population with an increasing load of complex, chronic health conditions, and analysis shows we need to significantly increase the number of medical specialists working in our public hospitals.”

Mr Powell says the figures released by Health Minister Jonathan Coleman showing an extra 986 senior doctors are now working in district health boards compared with 2008 fail to look at the number of doctors actually needed in the health system.

“These figures are misleading because they include temporary and casual employed doctors. This is naughty because it embellishes the result.

“But even if we are generous and take his claim at face value, his figures work out at an average of 154 extra medical specialists in hospitals each year, which is still approximately 100 specialists short of what New Zealand needs each year. So saying that the numbers have gone up – which they have – while not taking into account the full picture is somewhat disingenuous.”

ASMS analysis of the numbers required can be found at http://www.asms.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/100-more-hospital-specialists-needed-14-January-2015_162881.1.pdf and http://www.asms.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Taking-the-temperature-of-the-public-hospital-specialist-workforce-August-2014-FINAL.pdf.

“In reality, 100 extra specialists a year over and above what we already have is probably a conservative measure if the public health system is to continue providing top quality health care to all New Zealanders who require it.”

Our serious concerns about the level of entrenched specialist shortages in public hospitals are reinforced by the Health Minister’s own advisors. Last November Health Workforce New Zealand’s report, The Role of Health Workforce New Zealand, we stated:

The most important issue currently is the impact of a prolonged period of medical labour shortages on the workloads, wellbeing and productivity of DHB-employed senior doctors. Other areas under consideration, some of which are directly related, include the distribution and long-term retention, including retirement intentions, of doctors trained in New Zealand and overseas.

Additional points:

• New Zealand is ranked 30th out of 32 OECD countries in terms of specialists per head of population (including registrars). Only Turkey and Chile fare worse.

• There is solid anecdotal evidence of substantial unmet health need in the community but there is currently no accurate measure of the extent of it.

• A 2014 Commonwealth Fund survey of the performance of health systems in 11 developed countries ranked New Zealand 7th for timeliness of care.

ENDS

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