With climate change identified as the single greatest threat facing the Pacific, Pacific researchers from Waipapa
Taumata Rau, the University of Auckland, are taking bold steps to better understand the population dynamics of the
region’s 13 million peoples – projected to become 20 million by 2050.
A comprehensive report on Pacific population trends to 2050, released today, is the first product of the University’s
major Pacific-led research project on climate mobility.
The research is looking at where and how climate-related events and environmental changes (such as cyclones, floods,
drought, salination of soil and drinking water, heat stress, and sea level rise) will impact Pacific people’s decisions
to ‘stay in place’, or to move: whether within countries, around the region, or beyond, including to NZ.
Professor Yvonne Underhill- Sem MNZM, co-lead of the University of Auckland research team, hopes that actionable
research findings with a Pacific lens will assist in addressing the serious challenges of climate mobility. The research
aims to better inform government policy making, in support of effective, long-term and sustainable change.
Underhill-Sem, a Cook Islander, co-leads the University of Auckland research team with Dr Roannie Ng Shiu (from Samoa)
and Dr Tina Newport (also from the Cook Islands). She comments that it has been a privilege to work alongside colleagues
in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau.
“The insights that have been shared with us show a deep understanding of the challenges faced by communities, as well as
careful thought about future options”. The Pacific research methodologies they use build on shared kinship links and the
use of local languages in the 16 community sites where research has taken place.
The first report anticipates that people while will move within, as well as away from their countries, the great
majority of Pacific peoples will still be living and adapting to change in their home countries in 2050. The on-going
population growth anticipated in most Pacific communities is expected to more than make up for the those who move out of
their countries over the next coming 30 years.
Co-author Emeritus Professor Richard Bedford suggests in the report that looking at five different Pacific population
clusters (Western Pacific, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, Northern Pacific and French Territories), rather than the
traditional three (Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia), is a better way to understand the diversity and complexity of
the Pacific.
More research reports, policy briefs and digital stories on climate mobility from the University of Auckland research
team will be produced in the new year.
The research has been commissioned by the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, funded with New Zealand’s
climate finance. This research is being carried out by the University of Auckland, the University of Waikato and Mana
Pacific Consultants - a research team made up of Pacific researchers with strong Pacific knowledge, methodologies,
relationships and networks.
The first research product is available here for the next two weeks.