Increasing ethnic diversity projected across New Zealand – Media release
30 September 2015
All New Zealand's 16 regions and nearly all the 67 territorial authority areas (TAs) are projected to have increasing
ethnic diversity over the next two decades, Statistics New Zealand said today. New ethnic population projections
indicate increasing Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations in nearly all regions and TAs between 2013 and 2038.
In contrast, those identifying with 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' ethnicities will represent a
decreasing share of people in all regions and most TAs. However, this population is still projected to increase in
number between 2013 and 2038 in 11 regions and 37 TAs.
"These different ethnic growth rates reflect the combined impact of different fertility rates, age structures, and
migration patterns," population statistics manager Vina Cullum said.
"The pattern within Auckland is particularly interesting," she said. "By 2038, the broad Asian population is projected
to be the largest group in the Whau, Puketapapa, and Howick local board areas, while the broad Pacific group will be the
largest group in the Mangere-Otahuhu and Manurewa local board areas. And there will be a relatively even spread of the
four major ethnic groups in Henderson-Massey, Maungakiekie-Tamaki, and Papakura local board areas."
The projections also indicate a gradual ageing of all ethnic populations across New Zealand. This will see increasing
numbers and proportions of each ethnic population in the older ages in every region and TA.
"Ethnic projections are of more than just academic interest," Vina Cullum said. "They inform New Zealanders about our
changing demographic picture. They help ethnic communities understand their own changing populations. And they assist
planning in areas such as education and health, where different ethnic populations can have different needs."
Subnational ethnic population projections: 2013(base)–2038 are based on assumptions about the components that affect
ethnic population change: fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility.
Ends
For more information about these statistics:
• Open the attached files