Record Price Stability And High Stock Levels Offer A Rare Window For Buyers

• Unprecedented price stability offers more certainty for buyers and sellers
• Spring stock levels the highest they’ve been in a decade
• Sellers gain confidence with the highest September listings since 2020

The economic environment is shifting toward buyers, driven by declining interest rates, easing inflation, and August’s OCR cut, which boosted buyer activity. Now, the latest data from realestate.co.nz signals that the property environment might also be ripe for property seekers.

Stock levels remained high during September, providing potential buyers with plenty of options for finding their perfect property. Average asking prices also remained flat, marking the longest stretch of price stability since records began 17 years ago.

“For almost two years, our national average asking price has hovered between $860,000 and $890,000. We’ve never seen prices remain flat for this long,” says Vanessa Williams, spokesperson for realestate.co.nz.

However, growing interest suggests buyers may be eager to act before the market changes, especially with another OCR review on the horizon.

Total active users on realestate.co.nz were at an all-time high during September, up 28% on this time last year. Additionally, the site experienced the largest international audience in more than 12 months, with searches from Australia up 35%, the United States up 16%, and the UK up 25% year-on-year. Residential sale enquiries were also up by 9.6% year-on-year.

Williams notes that while high stock levels will take time to clear, market shifts are inevitable: “Although we won’t see the market change overnight, it is cyclical, and eventually, we will see movement. For those waiting for the perfect time to enter the market, this could be the window of opportunity they’ve been hoping for.”

Unprecedented price stability offers certainty for both buyers and sellers

In September, the national average asking price remained static, increasing just 0.2% year-on-year and 2.7% month-on-month. This marks 20 months of flat asking prices, the longest stretch of stability on record.

“Property market prices started flattening out in January 2023, when the national average asking price was $879,53. Almost two years later, we are sitting at $870,110.”

“This gives buyers and sellers a rare degree of market predictability. Buyers can confidently enter the market, knowing prices have remained steady, while sellers can adjust their expectations based on these consistent trends,” explains Williams.

The only regions to achieve double-digit growth year-on-year were Central Otago/Lakes District and Marlborough, with modest gains of 10.4% and 10.0%, respectively. This highlights the continued appeal of lifestyle regions.

Williams adds, “We’re seeing sustained interest in lifestyle regions like Central Otago/Lakes District and Marlborough, which offer not only space but an enviable lifestyle that continues to attract people, even with stock levels rising."

Supply shortages did not drive these price increases; both regions saw stock levels rise by more than 30% year-on-year.

Spring stock levels at the highest they’ve been in a decade

Stock levels nationally remained elevated in September, with the total number of properties for sale surpassing 30,000 after a slight dip in August. This is the first time stock levels have exceeded 30,000 during the month of September since 2014.

Nearly 6,500 more properties were available for sale last month compared to September 2023. Most regions experienced double-digit growth last month, except for Nelson and Bays (up 8.3%) and the West Coast (up 9.7%).

“With so many properties on the market, buyers have plenty of options as we head into the warmer months. If confidence continues to grow, we may start seeing stock levels decline as more buyers take advantage of current opportunities,” says Williams.

Sellers gain confidence with the highest September listings since 2020

New listings surged in September, rising 18.7% year-on-year and 15.3% month-on-month nationally. This marks the highest level of September new listings in three years, highlighting renewed seller confidence. Regions with the most significant year-on-year increases include Gisborne (50.0%), Coromandel (40.2%), Central Otago/Lakes District (40.9%), Wellington (36.1%), Otago (34.1%), and Central North Island (32.5%).

“We typically see an increase in listings as warmer weather encourages sellers to put their homes on the market,” explains Williams. “However, since 2021, spring has had a slower start, with more subdued listing levels during September. This year, we’re seeing a return to more typical spring activity, approaching 10,000 new listings compared to an average of around 7,000 in previous years.”

The increase in new listings suggests the potential for a busier spring season ahead for both buyers and sellers.

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