Frigid Housing Market's Winter Blues Continue

Residential property values are slowly buckling under the strain of the ongoing economic downturn, with just three of New Zealand’s main urban areas recording positive growth this quarter.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows values decreased nationally by an average of 1.9% across Aotearoa throughout the three months to the end of July – a larger rate of reduction than the 0.9% quarterly decline recorded back in June. The average home is now worth $909,517, which is 2.3% more than the same time last year and just 0.5% higher than at the start of 2024.

The largest average reductions in home value occurred across the top of the North Island this quarter – in Whangarei (-3.9%) and Auckland (-3.4%). The latter has now recorded six consecutive months of negative growth, with the average home now worth 0.4% less than at the same time last year. Among New Zealand’s other largest cities, average values have also reduced for four straight months in Wellington and now in back to back months in Christchurch.

Just Marlborough (0.6%), Invercargill (0.4%), and Queenstown (0.3%) recorded very modest amounts of positive home value growth this quarter. Of these three, only the latter recorded slightly higher quarterly growth in the three months to the end of July than in the previous period.

QV operations manager James Wilson commented: “Residential property values are slowly shrinking across all price brackets, in almost every part of Aotearoa. This is to be expected given the current challenging economic conditions, with a rising sense of job insecurity and persistently high interest rates leaving both buyers and sellers between a rock and a hard place.

“We’re also seeing a pretty major imbalance between the number of properties available for sale on the market this winter and a shallow pool of buyers who are willing and able to make a purchase. This is helping to maintain downward pressure on prices overall, with sellers having to adjust their expectations, pull their listings, or play the waiting game until conditions eventually improve.”

However, Mr Wilson said there was some growing optimism that mortgage rate relief could be on the not-too-distant horizon. “Homeowners are certainly feeling the strain right now, so they would have noted that the Reserve Bank’s rhetoric shifted somewhat in its last monetary policy review. They’ll be watching this week’s announcement with interest, if you’ll pardon the pun.”

He said prospective buyers will also be paying close attention to what the Reserve Bank has to say, with two more monetary reviews also scheduled later this year for October and November. “Markets don’t tend to respond too well to uncertainty. So, when we do eventually get a firmer steer on when we can expect mortgage rate relief, it may signal a shift in sentiment, which could spark some life in certain parts of the property market – but it’s not expected to trigger a rush back to the races.”

In the meantime, he expected home values to remain flat to gently falling. “Unemployment is on the rise, and we may see an uptick in mortgagee sales as a result of economic strife, but it’s still unlikely that we’ll see any strong value declines as we make our way through the rest of winter. It’s even less likely that we’ll see any sudden strong home value growth,” Mr Wilson concluded.

Northland

Home values have diminished across the Northland region at an average rate of 2.9% this quarter.

The largest average reduction was in Whangarei, where the average home value decreased by 3.9% this quarter to $716,214. Kaipara had the smallest average decline – down 0.7% to $850,253 – and the Far North was between the two, with a 2.1% quarterly reduction to $708,968.

On an annualised basis, home values in the Far North remain 9.5% higher on average than at the same time last year. They are also 6.5% higher on average in Kaipara and 1.5% lower in Whangarei over the 12 months to the end of July 2024.

Auckland

The average Auckland home is now worth 0.4% less than a year ago, following six consecutive months of negative growth.

The latest QV House Price Index shows the average home value across Tāmaki Makaurau has decreased by 3.4% to $1,238,413 in the July quarter – a higher rate of quarterly decline than the 2.6% reduction recorded in our previous index.

Of the Super City’s seven former local government areas, the largest average home value reductions occurred this quarter in Papakura (-5.7%). Otherwise the rate of decline was relatively consistent across Franklin (-3.1%), Manukau (-3.3%), Auckland City (-3.1%), Waitakere (-2.6%), North Shore (-2.2%), and Rodney (-2.7%).

QV registered valuer Hugh Robson commented: “The market remains very subdued overall, with agents reporting little interest from buyers – apart from the occasional ‘cheeky’ offer. There are lots of properties on the market right now, giving buyers plenty of choice. Rental levels also remain high across the city.”

“However, there are still many townhouse developments just starting, under construction or nearing completion. This suggests there are developers out there who are predicting a recovery over the next year. Economists are also predicting interest rates to start falling further later this year, which should improve the situation for prospective buyers.”

Tauranga

The residential property market’s slow but steady decline has continued in Tauranga.

The QV House Price Index for July 2024 shows the city’s average home value reduced by 1% to $1,019,271 this quarter – up slightly from a three-month average rolling rate of 1.3% negative growth in our previous index.

The city’s average home value is now 1.6% lower than at the start of this calendar year, but still 2.5% higher than at the end of July last year.

Waikato

The average home in the Waikato region has decreased in value by 1.2% this quarter.

Just two districts across the wider Waikato region managed to buck this trend – Taupo (1.5%) and Hauraki District (1.1%). Otherwise, Otorohanga (-4.3%), South Waikato (-3.5%), Waikato District (3.1%), and Matamata-Piako (-2.3%) saw the largest declines on average.

In Hamilton, the average home value decreased by 1.4% to $778,699, which is a higher rate of reduction than the 0.3% quarterly decline reported in last month’s QV House Price index. On an annualised basis, that figure remains just 0.2% higher than the same time last year.

Local QV property consultant Marshall Wu commented: “Real estate agents indicate that the total amount of stock available for sale remains significantly high, with lower asking prices. Many sellers are becoming more cautious and are seeking well-known agencies to list their properties in an effort to achieve higher sale prices.”

“Households are likely to face increased financial hardship this winter, with inflation remaining relatively high and the prospect of a prolonged period before interest rates decrease more substantially. This risk of financial stress is amplified by a combination of high household debt levels and loosening labour market conditions,” Mr Wu said.

Taranaki

The downturn remains relatively steady in Taranaki.

Across the wider region, the average home has reduced in value by 1.4% this quarter – just 0.2% off the quarterly rate of decline reported in last month’s QV House Price Index.

In New Plymouth, the average home value has reduced by 0.9% to $713,748 this quarter – its rolling three-monthly rate of quarterly decline increasing by just a fraction of a percentage point from June to July – with an average annual rate of decline of 0.5%.

South Taranaki recorded the largest average home value reduction this quarter at 3.1%, with Stratford not far behind on 2.9%. However, these two districts are still showing a small amount of positive home value growth on an annualised basis of 1.8% and 0.2% respectively.

Hawke’s Bay

Residential property values continue to ebb away at a slow but steady rate in Napier and Hastings.

The average value reduced by 1.8% to $745,451 in the former this quarter, and by 1.1% to $782,497 in the latter. However, both Napier (1.5%) and Hastings (3.1%) are still showing positive growth on an annualised basis.

Palmerston North

Residential property values have reduced for a fourth straight month in Palmerston North.

The city’s average home value decreased by 1.4% to $635,185 this quarter – just a fraction of a percentage point worse than the three-month-rolling rate recorded in our previous QV House Price Index. The average home is still worth 1.5% more than at the same time last year.

Local QV registered valuer Olivia Betts commented: “As winter continues and the real estate market typically slows down, current activity levels are being closely monitored. Affordability concerns remain, with many potential buyers facing challenges due to higher interest rates. These rates are continuing to pose difficulties for those looking to enter or move within the market.”

Wellington

The average home in Wellington is now worth 0.2% less than at the start of this calendar year.

It follows four straight months of slow but steady negative home value growth, including by an average of 1% in July. The mean average home value in the region is now $856,946, which is 1.9% lower for the quarter but still 4% higher than the same time last year.

Declines were recorded on average across every district this quarter, with Hutt City (-2.5%) recording the largest, and Upper Hutt (-0.8%) recording the smallest. The latter and Kapiti Coast are the only districts still showing positive growth on average throughout the first seven months of 2024.

“The property market remains sluggish in the Wellington region, with values continuing to slide over the month of July,” said local QV senior consultant David Cornford. “Stock levels have decreased slightly over the last month – but there is still a large amount of unsold stock on the market, giving buyers plenty of choice and bargaining power.”

Mr Cornford said interest rates were now widely expected to start decreasing by the end of the year. “While this will help support the market, it is unlikely to have a significant impact initially, given weak economic and employment conditions.”

“In the meantime, buyers continue to take a cautious approach and the majority of households are reluctant to take on additional debt given current uncertain economic and employment conditions.”

Nelson

Home values have dwindled across the greater Tasman region by an average of 0.3% this quarter.

But the reductions have been larger on average in Nelson. The city’s average home value reduced by 1.4% this quarter to $769,979 – a slightly higher rate of decline than the 0.9% deficit that QV recorded throughout the three months to the end of June.

Marlborough bucked the downward trend this quarter. Its average home value increased by 0.6% to $714,898, making it one of just three main centres across Aotearoa to post positive growth throughout the three months to the end of July.

QV Nelson/Marlborough manager Craig Russell described the local market as “soft”, with high levels of inventory – especially in the Tasman District.

“There are indications that a number of investors are leaving the market now due to low returns. These are predominantly the older demographic, who are wanting to cash out now, given the likelihood of an extended period before we see any considerable value growth,” he said.

“First-home buyers remain active in the local market and the average number days to sell remains high, with the cost of borrowing remaining a big barrier for purchasers to overcome. Mortgage borrowing is at low levels, which indicates that people are not borrowing due to the costs.”

West Coast

Residential property values yo-yoed across the West Coast in July.

They dropped 2.2% to $414,372 in Grey District, increased by an average of 0.8% to $360,297 in Buller, and also dropped by 0.6% to $438,339 in Westland.

On an annual basis, however, residential property values are 7.4% higher across the wider West Coast region than they were at the same time last year. This is compared to a national average increase of 2.3% annually.

Canterbury

Residential property values have softened across much of Canterbury.

Only Ashburton recorded positive home value growth this quarter. Its average home value increased by 5.3% to $576,762.

Otherwise, home values decreased across the wider region at an average rate of 0.7% throughout the three months to the end of July 2024 – a nominal decline after the 0.3% growth recorded in the June quarter.

In Christchurch, the average home value declined by 0.7% to $760,981 this quarter. The surrounding districts of Waimakariri (-0.5%) and Selwyn (-1.4%) also recorded modest declines.

QV senior consultant Olivia Brownie commented: “July has seen a continued softening of home values across much of Canterbury. Slowing activity over the winter months and the ample number of listings has contributed to this dip in values over the last quarter. Key factors such as high mortgage rates, affordability pressure and the rise in house listings are still contributing to the downturn.”

“We note certain sectors of the market – particularly the first-home buyer market in Christchurch – are still consistently resilient, with the lower quartile making up more transactions than the owner/occupier upper quartile market,” she added.

Otago

The housing market has remained largely flat across the Otago region.

Our latest QV House Price Index shows the average home value reduced across the wider region by 0.1% in the July quarter. Clutha District experienced the most growth on average this quarter at 2.3%, and Dunedin experienced the largest average decline at 1.5%.

On an annualised basis, the average home value in the district of Waitaki is 7.2% higher than the same time last year at $498,955, which is the largest average amount of annual growth in the Otago region. Meanwhile, the average value of a home in Dunedin is 4.4% higher than the same time last year at $637,119.

“The strongest growth over the last 12 months continues to be in Dunedin North at 6.6%, followed by the Taieri at 5.5%,” said local QV registered valuer Rebecca Johnston. “The lower quartile has seen a slight strengthening in our latest figures, while the upper quartile reversed with a slight weakening.”

“The Consumers Price Index data for Q2 came in at 3.3%, which is within close range of the Reserve Bank’s inflation target rate of between 1-3%. Therefore, calls have been mounting for the Official Cash Rate to be cut. For now, though, it continues to be a buyers’ market in Dunedin.”

Queenstown

Queenstown was one of three main urban areas to record a small amount of home value growth this quarter.

The QV House Price Index for July 2024 shows the average home value in Queenstown increased by 0.3% to $1,832,346, which is a slightly faster rate of growth than the 0.1% quarterly home value increase we reported in our June index.

The average home value is now 6.9% higher than at the end of July last year, and 3.1% higher than at the start of 2024.

Invercargill

QV recorded only a modest amount of home value growth in Invercargill this quarter.

The city’s average home value has increased by 0.4% to $483,715 throughout the three months to the end of July 2024. That figure is 5.4% higher than the same time last year, and 1.3% more than at the start of this calendar year.

Local QV registered valuer Andrew Ronald said market conditions remained flat across all price brackets. “High interest rates are continuing to limit growth, but we are still seeing relatively steady demand from first-home buyers, with investors starting to slowly return to the market again following the restoration of interest tax deductibility rules.”

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