The latest BusinessNZ Planning Forecast shows New Zealand’s economy continues to face pressure from within and further abroad, increasing chances of recession.
BusinessNZ Chief Executive Kirk Hope says some of these pressures are beyond our control, "including the impact of
recent flooding which resulted in significant damage and personal loss for communities".
Retail sales signal a slowing economy, while continued low business and consumer confidence, coupled with inflation and
climbing interest rates, continue to take a toll.
"We’re seeing the effect of all this hitting households in the pocket. People are paying attention to rising costs and
choosing to tighten up on spending," Mr. Hope says.
"Internationally, the price of commodities are holding up reasonably well, although they’re still significantly lower
than their peak."
"The expectation is for softer prices. We see this already in a downgrade of the anticipated milk-payout to dairy
farmers, for instance."
The BusinessNZ Economic Conditions Index sits at -12 for the March 2023 quarter, a deterioration of 2 on the previous
quarter and 8 on a year ago.
The Index tracks 33 economic indicators including GDP, export volumes, commodity prices, inflation, debt, and business
and consumer confidence. You can find the full Planning Forecast on our website.