The Environmental Defence Society (EDS) has released a memorandum from respected University of Auckland economist
Professor Tim Hazledine, which analyses the economic modelling commissioned by DairyNZ. He concludes that DairyNZ has
misinterpreted its economic modelling and misrepresented the impact of the freshwater reforms.
“We were concerned that DairyNZ had not accurately described what the modelling it commissioned said, and that it was
putting a self-serving spin on the data,” said EDS CEO Gary Taylor.
“It is our contention, supported by Professor Hazledine, that DairyNZ grossly overstated the potential negative impacts
of the reforms on the sector and on the wider New Zealand economy, when its own modelling shows the opposite. In our
opinion DairyNZ is trying to avoid having to meet mandatory freshwater limits and is instead seeking to substitute what
it euphemistically calls “good management practice” which is not going to cut the mustard.
Professor Hazledine was commissioned by EDS to review whether there was a reality gap between the model outputs and the
“My conclusion is that the computable general equilibrium (GCE) models used by Sense Partners and Infometrics showed the
same result: that New Zealand’s economic wellbeing would be slightly improved by the imposition of the proposed
freshwater quality standards,” said Professor Hazledine.
“In its press release DairyNZ focused on scenario 3 which it said resulted in a cost to New Zealand of $6 billion a year
by 2050 and a 24% reduction in milk production.
“With respect to the first point, New Zealand overall is forecast in the modelling to be slightly better off in economic terms as a result of the freshwater policies. Table 1 of the Infometrics report forecasts that Real Gross
National Disposable Income will be about $1 billion / year (0.2% of GDP) higher even under Scenario 3.
“With respect to the second point, the modelling shows that a reduction in milk production will not lead to diminished returns from the sector: if we cut back the quantity supplied, we would move up the demand curve,
getting a better price from fewer resources committed to the dairy sector – called ‘improved terms of trade’
(Infometrics, pp 4, 9; Sense Partners, page ii).
“Overall it is my prediction that we will be significantly better off economically from the implementation of the policy
scenarios – even before factoring in the environmental benefits that these policies are purposed to achieve,” Professor
Environmental Defence Society
EDS is a not-for-profit environmental organisation committed to improving environmental outcomes within New Zealand.
The Environmental Defence Society (EDS) is a professionally run, independent environmental group that was established in
1971. It brings together the disciplines of science, planning, landscape and the law.
MORE ABOUT EDS
It operates as a think-tank, providing thought leadership on key environmental issues as well as representing the
environment before councils and the courts.
EDS is located at the collaborative and business aware end of the environmental movement, seeking constructive
engagement with all sectors, to achieve good environmental and economic outcomes for all New Zealanders. It has
It also plays an education role, helping business, councils, community groups and iwi to better understand best
practice resource management. EDS runs national and regional conferences and seminars on topical issues.
EDS is a registered charity and donations to it are tax-deductible.