Fonterra says more assets under review as it cuts guidance, narrows forecast payout
By Rebecca Howard
May 23 (BusinessDesk) - Fonterra Cooperative Group narrowed the range for its forecast payout to farmers this season,
cut its earnings guidance and says it may sell more assets.
The cooperative has started a strategic review of its two farm hubs in China, is reviewing options for the future
ownership of its Brazil joint venture with Nestle, and is considering closing its Dennington factory in Australia.
The dairy processor now expects to pay $6.30-6.40 per kilogram of milk solids in the current season - which ends on May
31 - versus its February forecast of $6.30-6.60/kgMS. This reflects slightly weaker than expected pricing for whole milk
powder and skim milk powder, offset by a lower kiwi dollar, it said.
Fonterra's opening forecast for the season beginning June 1 is $6.25-7.25/kgMS.
“This is a realistic opening forecast. We are having to look out more than a year into the future which is difficult,
but what the information available is continuing to show us is that demand remains strong across key trading partners
and this is reflected in GDT prices," said chair John Monaghan.
The world's biggest dairy exporter is strengthening its balance sheet as part of its wider strategic review. That's
included the divestment of a range of assets no longer deemed central to the cooperative's future, the most recent being
the $380 million sale of the Tip Top ice-cream business.
Chief executive Miles Hurrell said the China and Brazil decisions relate to a new strategic direction for the firm.
"In particular, prioritising our New Zealand milk supply and simplifying our global portfolio, which, as we have said
previously, requires us to review every part of business to ensure it meets the needs of the co-op today".
Hurrell said China remains a key market for Fonterra.
“We have contributed to China’s dairy industry by developing high-quality model farms and showing there is a valuable
opportunity for fresh milk in China’s consumer market, and this continues to be an attractive prospect.
“However, this does not necessarily mean that we need to continue to have large amounts of capital tied up in farming
hubs," he said.
“On DPA Brazil, which is a joint venture distributing chilled dairy products throughout Brazil, the review into future
ownership options and whether to sell is expected to be completed by the end of 2019,” Hurrell said.
The Dennington factory in Victoria has 98 employees.
"The Australian Ingredients business continues to feel the impact of the drought and other significant changes that mean
there is excess manufacturing capacity in the Australian dairy industry," Hurrell said.
“This is not a one-off for this season, it’s the new norm for the Australian dairy industry and we need to adapt. We
need to get the most value from every drop of our farmers’ milk and, with the reduced milk pool in Australia, we must
put it into our highest returning products and most efficient assets. Dennington is over 100 years old and not viable in
a low-milk pool environment," he said.
Fonterra’s revenue for the nine months to April 30 was $15 billion, up 1 percent on the same period last year, while
sales volumes were 16.6 billion litres on a liquid milk equivalent basis, up 4 percent. However, normalised earnings
before interest and tax fell 9 percent to $522 million.
Hurrell said the New Zealand Ingredients business performed as expected but Australia still faces challenges. Some parts
of the cooperative's consumer and foodservice business are also taking longer than planned to improve their performance
Hurrell said that there are some heightened risks in the fourth quarter to the co-op’s previous forecast normalised
earnings and it lowered guidance to 10-15 cents per share from 15-25 cents. That implies a forecast range of
$161.2-241.8 million, compared to $241.8-403 million.
For the consumer and food service division, it lowered its forecast normalised ebit to $400-430 million from its prior
forecast of $475-525 million. For its ingredients business, Fonterra lowered the forecast to $645-725 million from the
previous $750-850 million range.