XE Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.6847
Daily: Gradually narrowing NZD range either side of 0.6800
Weekly: Consolidative mode with market focus elsewhere
Support 1: 0.6690/00
Support2: 0.6595/05
Resistance1: 0.6900/10
Resistance2: 0.6995/05

NZD prices remain trapped within a gradually narrowing consolidation pattern either side of 0.6800 with resistance visible around 0.6900 while support at 0.6700 limits downside risk. Despite an impulsive-looking end to 2018 values would still need to resolve this range on the upside to enable further/direct gains in Q2 2019 (targeting 0.7050 if not 0.7125 given already existing compression). Otherwise any breach of circa 0.6695/05 demand will risk renewed deterioration instead -targeting 0.6550 if not 0.6475 instead on this basis.

NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.9671
Daily: NZD positive but with initial resistance at 0.9750/60
Weekly: Underlying recovery sequence intact above 0.9365/75
Support 1: 0.9490/00
Support2: 0.9365/78
Resistance1: 0.9750/60
Resistance2: 0.9875/85

Despite the volatility evidenced here during January NZD prices subsequently re-based and more recently started to push higher again. Given a prior/broad triangular pattern also resolved towards the end of last year which values should be supported going forward and on this basis only beneath 0.9365/75 (now key) demand is considered overtly negative. Otherwise dips will uncover initial buying interest around 0.9500 and though some selling pressure exists at 0.9750 an extension beyond targets 0.9875 if not 1.0000 areas next.

NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.6056
Daily: Near term ascending sequence intact above 0.5990/00
Weekly: Market effectively rangebound while beneath 0.6125
Support 1: 0.5990/00
Support2: 0.5915/25
Resistance1: 0.6125/35
Resistance2: 0.6200/10

While Q4 2018 NZD price action here continues to look potentially impulsive/trend-like (as indeed per NZD/USD above) an extension beyond the prior/notable highs at 0.6125 is nonetheless necessary to confirm this bullish underlying scenario. Once seen the past few months range should then be used as a platform from which to engineer further gains with 0.6275 if not 0.6350 becoming readable as well. However in the meantime further choppy consolidation cannot be ruled out and support is also limited until 0.6000 initially.

NZD/JPY
Last Price: 76.14
Daily: Shorter term ascending sequence intact above 75.00
Weekly: Gains still seen as part of broad/ongoing range for now
Support 1: 74.90/00
Support2: 73.45/55
Resistance1: 77.45/55
Resistance2: 79.00/10

Recent strength notwithstanding an argument can be made NZD prices remaining broad rangebound either side of 75.00 for now with additional evidence thus needed to confirm prior volatility here is indeed an attempt to base out. While this pivot point holds below further (near term) gains would not surprise as values are attracted back to 77.50 next but a subsequent extension beyond 79.00 will be needed to turn underlying readings positive. In the meantime though 73.50 or even 72.00 are not necessarily yet out of reach either.

NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.5185
Daily: Market in retracement channel while below 0.5300
Weekly: NZD prices still digesting late 2018 advances for now
Support 1: 0.5140/50
Support2: 0.5070/80
Resistance1: 0.5295/05
Resistance2: 0.5375/85

As elsewhere Q4 2018 gains here have not (yet at least) been built upon in 2019 with NZD prices instead remaining on a defensive tack for the moment at least. Fresh rallies have selling pressure starting at 0.5300 and studies suggest secondary 0.5375 area supply must give way as well to enable a direct re-test of the psychological 0.5500 level). Otherwise further downside retracement looks feasible over the next few days at least and while some support is evident at 0.5150 any break will risk 0.5075 then 0.5000 first/next instead.

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