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HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

Published: Thu 15 Nov 2018 04:43 PM
NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.6789
Daily: /NZD prices continue to retrace prior/extended losses
Weekly: Mkt attempting to bottom out either side of 0.6500
Support 1: 0.6595/05
Support2: 0.6500/10
Resistance1: 0.6850/60
Resistance2: 0.6925/35
Insufficient evidence exists to confirm a major low has already been posted here but NZD prices nonetheless look capable of retracing somewhat higher in coming sessions even if such gains ultimately prove corrective only. Little obvious resistance is evident until 0.6850 then 0.6925 areas while fresh dips have support beginning at 0.6625 and only beneath 0.6500 as well would argue for direct resumption of previous negativity. Otherwise studies suggest the market can re-visit 0.7000 at some point before encountering heavy supply.
NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.9407
Daily: NZD positive but nearing major 0.9450/0.9525 supply
Weekly: /Breach of 0.9525 needed to confirm/complete base
Support 1: 0.9290/00
Support2: 0.9220/30
Resistance1: 0.9450/60
Resistance2: 0.9525/35
Shorter term technicals remain positive and as/when prices can surpass secondary 0.9525/35 area resistance underlying NZD readings may well improve as well. On this basis the past 3-4 years gradually narrowing range would have matured with enough compression potentially apparent to enable an eventual extension nearer 1.0000. However for now at least rally attempts are still considered part of an ongoing triangular consolidation pattern and re-emergent weakness also has little obvious demand until 0.9300/0.9225 initially.
NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.6005
Daily: Positive but overbought initially much beyond 0.6000
Weekly: /Improving tone while above 0.5750 tertiary support
Support 1: 0.5890/00
Support2: 0.5815/25
Resistance1: 0.6050/60
Resistance2: 0.6125/35
A combination of overbought (daily) readings and heavy resistance extending beyond the psychological 0.6000 level may well inhibit further gains here initially. However the past few weeks sharp bounce also looks to be only part of a broader recovery sequence with re-emergent weakness now thus considered corrective only. Little obvious demand exists until 0.5900/0.5825 again but unless tertiary 0.5750 support gives way as well no damage should be done and looking further ahead 0.6200 if not 0.6400 will now surprise either.
NZD/JPY
Last Price: 76.94
Daily: Overbought but fresh erosion now viewed as corrective
Weekly: /Turning positive with interim base now completed
Support 1: 75.50/60
Support2: 74.00/10
Resistance1: 78.00/10
Resistance2: 79.50/60
As elsewhere developing overbought readings here from a near term perspective at least may well slow further/direct NZD gains in coming sessions. However the structure of this sharp rebound from 72.50 or so also looks impulsive/trend-like which suggests re-emergent weakness will now prove corrective only. Additional consolidation or re-accumulation would encourage this nascent positive view and although dips arguably have little support until 75.50/74.00 again an eventual extension to if not beyond 80.00 now looks feasible.
NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.5234
Daily: NZD strength encountering little resistance thus far
Weekly: Mkt at least neutral if not in re-basing mode again
Support 1: 0.5145/55
Support2: 0.5075/85
Resistance1: 0.5290/00
Resistance2: 0.5375/85
The technical situation here is similar to that being seen elsewhere with prices either re-stabilising within an intermediate range or potentially in the process of bottoming out as well in broad terms. Resistance at 0.5300 then 0.5375 must be hurdled in any case to encourage an intermediate positive view with the market otherwise effectively still pivoting 0.5125. However fresh dips now have demand at 0.5150 and 0.5075 which suggests the psychological 0.5000 level is already out of reach (from a short term perspective at least).
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