HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.7201
Daily: Bearish for now with resistance at 0.7275 initially
Weekly: Mkt still digesting/correcting prior gains for now
Support 1: 0.7125/35
Support2: 0.7015/25
Resistance1: 0.7270/80
Resistance2: 0.7365/75

While re-emergent NZD weakness here looks more obviously corrective in broader terms the market has nonetheless also spurned another opportunity to (directly) resume prior bullishness in recent days. Values instead evidently stalled above 0.7400 and fresh rebounds now face local selling pressure at 0.7275. An extension back beyond secondary 0.7375 supply will be needed to expose 0.7550 again but otherwise nearby supports remain vulnerable to attack at least initially. Whilst some demand is evident at 0.7125 a breach would expose 0.7025 first/next as well.

NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.9178
Daily: Mkt recovering back up into previous/broad range
Weekly: /NZD bearish trend on hold again for the moment
Support 1: 0.9040/50
Support2: 0.8965/75
Resistance1: 0.9250/60
Resistance2: 0.9345/55

Recent NZD strength here has not yet confirmed a major low in place but studies nonetheless also argue scope for further gains over the next few days at least. Looking ahead downside risk exists back to 0.8975 again (initially) then nearer 0.8750 as well thereafter. However prices look capable of retracing higher in the meantime with some buying interest now exists at 0.9050. While above here an extension nearer 0.9250 would not surprise first/next though some evidence suggests selling pressure will firm thereafter with resistance appearing heavy at 0.9345/55.

NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.6132
Daily: NZD prices trapped in corrective/consolidative pattern
Weekly: /Bearish pattern complete around 0.6000 for now
Support 1: 0.6065/75
Support2: 0.5990/00
Resistance1: 0.6270/80
Resistance2: 0.6350/60

As per NZD/AUD above prices here have turned higher from psychological support (in this instance at 0.6000) in recent days with broader downtrends thus on hold again for the timebeing. Fresh dips have local support around 0.6065/75 and an extension below 0.5990/00 is now necessary to directly resume the prior descending sequence. Otherwise further corrective activity looks likely ahead of the next meaningful sell-off and while emergent strength looks untenable values could nonetheless retrace nearer 0.6275 or even 0.6350 before meeting supply again.

NZD/JPY
Last Price: 81.25
Daily: Neutral but well supported at 79.50 or 78.00 areas
Weekly: Latter stages of multi-month re-basing exercise
Support 1: 79.50/60
Support2: 78.00/10
Resistance1: 82.50/60
Resistance2: 83.95/05

While this pair remains in re-accumulative mode at present the past few months base pattern nonetheless appears to be maturing. Until/unless important 84.00 resistance gives way further sideways activity cannot be ruled out for now but support is also visible starting at 79.50/60. Only a sell-off back through secondary demand at 78.00 would damage this gradually improving intermediate tone and otherwise an upside resolution appears increasingly likely over coming weeks. Note: once seen enough base work already exists to target 87.00 if not 90.00 eventually.

NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.5375
Daily: Response from 0.5325 looks corrective only thus far
Weekly: Bearish NZD bias maintained while beneath 0.5575
Support 1: 0.5320/30
Support2: 0.5245/55
Resistance1: 0.5495/05
Resistance2: 0.5565/75

For now at least NZD prices here remain under pressure with the market still being influenced by its recent rejection above 0.5700. Provided support firms again at 0.5250 a broader range arguably persists either side of 0.5500 but additional evidence (in the form of re-basing work) now appears necessary before any direct return to 0.5750 becomes likely. Fresh bounces will also encounter some selling pressure around 0.5500 then 0.5575 areas initially as well and any loss of 0.5245/55 support would infer continued (short term at least) erosion to 0.5100 next.

ENDS

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