31 March, 2017
Property Institute says property price softening bad news for supply
Property Institute of New Zealand Chief Executive Ashley Church says that recent indications of price softening in the
Auckland housing market are unlikely to bring much relief to first home buyers and will almost certainly make the
housing supply problem in Auckland even worse.
He was responding to comments by ANZ Chief Economist Cameron Bagrie who said, earlier this week, that 'the game is over'
for the Auckland housing boom due to rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs. Mr Bagrie said that the cost of
borrowing would 'trump' the supply shortage and that the market has now moved into a 'fundamentally different' phase.
Mr Church agreed with Mr Bagries assessment but says that this latest development isn't good news for the market.
"The Reserve Bank loan-to-value restrictions have been slowing the market for some time - and it's entirely possible
that rising interest rates will consolidate that slow-down and reduce price pressure by scaring some people out of the
market - particularly those who were chasing capital growth, such as property investors".
"But that's not necessarily good news. Auckland still needs over 40,000 new houses and we've long been of the view that
the way to get those built quickly was to divert property investors away from existing dwellings and into investing in
new homes. Unfortunately, it now looks even less likely that that will happen".
Mr Church says while there is some debate over the extent to which investors have been a factor in the Auckland property
market - with figures ranging from 25% to 45% - their impact on the market has been significant.
"Depending on which figure you believe - property investors have represented between a quarter and almost half of the
market. With the right incentives, those are people who could have been diverted into investment in new dwellings - but
instead, most of them will now disappear from the market".
Mr Church says that there has been too much focus, particularly by the Reserve Bank, on strangling speculation rather
than increasing supply and he says that the 'chickens are now coming home to roost'.
"Congratulations - you've almost killed off market activity. Now there's just that small matter of the 40,000 housing
deficit that still needs to be resolved".
Mr Church also says that a softening in prices is unlikely to make much difference to first home buyers.
"Although rising house prices have been a problem - the lower cost of borrowing has meant that some first home buyers
could still enter the market. That small advantage will now be largely offset by rising interest rates which will also
start to quickly erode the amounts that banks are prepared to lend to those borrowers".
Mr Church says that, ultimately, the situation is unsustainable.
"We have Reserve Bank restrictions and rising interest rates restraining growth in a market where we need 40,000 new
homes. Anyone who remembers Muldoons wage-and-price freeze in the early 80s will know what happens when you try and
constrain pent up demand. Sooner or later the bomb explodes and something, somewhere, breaks".
Ends