HIFX Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.7036
Daily: Neutral while dips contained above 0.6900 support
Weekly: Gradually narrowing pattern either side of 0.7150
Support 1: 0.6965/75
Support2: 0.6890/00
Resistance1: 0.7120/30
Resistance2: 0.7200/10

For now at least NZD prices have re-stabilised around the psychological 0.7000 level and while recent 0.6900 area lows are thereby protected downside scope is limited from a short term stand-point. Selling pressure starts at 0.7125 but once regained daily technicals would improve with risk thereafter back towards 0.7200/0.7275 areas again. Any such rally will still be seen as another component of the gradually narrowing inter-week range here but on this basis (unless 0.6890/00 gives way first/next) the next sizeable sell-off may well thus start from somewhat higher levels.

NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.9166
Daily: /Market still digesting previous losses for the moment
Weekly: Negative unless/until prior range can be regained
Support 1: 0.9070/80
Support2: 0.8995/05
Resistance1: 0.9295/05
Resistance2: 0.9375/85

The technical environment here remains dominated by supply with NZD prices having only recently broken down from a protracted re-consolidation pattern. Oversold near term readings and the presence of support at 0.9070/80 may well keep the psychological 0.9000 level out of reach initially but fresh rally attempts are also likely to prove corrective. A closing break back beyond 0.9300 resistance might if seen reduce downside pressure somewhat. Otherwise though further weakness cannot be ruled out going forwards with enough compression to reach 0.8750 or so eventually.

NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.6532
Daily: /Mkt digesting prior/sharp losses either side of 0.6500
Weekly: Broadly negative picture without any obvious base work
Support 1: 0.6450/60
Support2: 0.6375/85
Resistance1: 0.6570/80
Resistance2: 0.6665/75

Given the impulsive or trend-like structure of recent NZD deterioration fresh recovery attempts here are expected to prove corrective. Values have evidently re-stabilised either side of 0.6500 in recent days but fresh rallies are considered a response to prior oversold readings only. Selling pressure exists at 0.6575 then 0.6675 and without any obvious accumulation upside scope appears limited thereafter. Meanwhile although temporary buying interest has been found at 0.6450 an extension below will bring 0.6375 and then 0.6300 into focus before fresh demand is uncovered.

NZD/JPY
Last Price: 78.09
Daily: /Oversold but fresh rallies will now be seen as corrective
Weekly: Evidence of fresh base needed to reduce negative risk
Support 1: 77.40/50
Support2: 75.90/00
Resistance1: 79.00/10
Resistance2: 80.50/60

An argument could be made for NZD prices re-stabilising either side of 77.50 in coming sessions given current oversold readings and the relative lack of distribution preceding the recent sell-off here. However some damage at least has also been done to any obvious bullish argument in the past few weeks with re-emergent strength now thus likely to be corrective or at least untenable. Supply no looks considerable beyond the psychological 80.00 level (toward 80.50) and resistance begins around 79.00. Meanwhile demand is thin beneath 77.40/50 until 76.00 or so again next.

NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.5655
Daily: Directly bearish tone maintained below 0.5725/35
Weekly: Macro rally sequence remains on hold at present
Support 1: 0.5570/80
Support2: 0.5490/00
Resistance1: 0.5720/30
Resistance2: 0.5800/10

As elsewhere NZD values here have already spurned several opportunities to bottom out in recent weeks and the immediate technical environment is now increasingly dominated by supply as a result. Provided the market re-stabilises around the psychological 0.5500 level going forward and then subsequently regains secondary 0.5800 resistance as well prior 0.6000 cycle peaks are not yet fully out of reach. However fresh rebounds now face localised selling pressure at 0.5725/35 and little accumulative work is in any case evident to enable such a recovery attempt at present.

© Scoop Media