HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD

Last Price: 0.7007
Daily: /Bearish but with good support evident below 0.7000
Weekly: Neutral NZD tone at least unless 0.6900 gives way

Support 1: 0.6970/80
Support2: 0.6900/10
Resistance1: 0.7100/10
Resistance2: 0.7175/85

Insufficient evidence exist to confirm an interim low in place with NZD values stalling ahead of 0.7100 over the past few days. However while secondary 0.6900 support holds below no significant damage will be done to the pre-existing recovery channel either. On this basis another attempt to bottom out could still be seen with the entire retracement from 0.7487 in September potentially ABC corrective. A close beneath 0.6900 would risk further/sizeable losses to 0.6700 if not 0.6500 but otherwise new highs cannot be ruled out eventually instead.

NZD/AUD

Last Price: 0.9487
Daily: Narrowing range between 0.9400 and 0.9600 areas.
Weekly: Market still effectively pivoting 0.9500 at present

Support 1: 0.9390/00
Support2: 0.9245/55
Resistance1: 0.9600/10
Resistance2: 0.9745/55

Attention has switched from the upside to the downside several times already in recent months but NZD values here nonetheless remain effectively rangebound around a 0.9500 pivot for now. Enough compression already exists to enable a sizeable relocation once either 0.9250 support or 0.9750 resistance gives way but further sideways action otherwise looks likely in the shorter term with market attention still focused elsewhere. While more recent advances stalled around 0.9600/10 some localised buying interest now exists at 0.9390/00 as well.

NZD/EUR

Last Price: 0.6641
Daily: Bullish though gains inhibited by 0.6750 supply for now
Weekly: Broad but shallow NZD ascending pattern still in force

Support 1: 0.6490/00
Support2: 0.6415/25
Resistance1: 0.6740/50
Resistance2: 0.6820/30

Despite several unsuccessful attempts to break down in recent weeks NZD values are thus far struggling to accelerate away on the upside as well with selling pressure evidently being encountered ahead of 0.6750. Technical studies argue a close beyond here should allow the market to regain its previous upside impetus and enough re-accumulative work probably then exists to enable an extension to 0.6900 as well going forward. Only below 0.6345/55 (key) demand is overtly negative and otherwise dips now have initial support around 0.6500.

NZD/JPY

Last Price: 78.81
Daily: Positive with NZD prices focusing on 80.00 or so next
Weekly: /Accumulative (base-forming) intermediate tone

Support 1: 75.50/75
Support2: 72.00/25
Resistance1: 80.00/25
Resistance2: 83.25/50

Psychological resistance immediately above 80.00 may well limit upside scope here initially but with recent NZD price action looking increasingly accumulative an upside resolution will not surprise going forward as values head toward 83.25/50 next. Re-emergent weakness beforehand would be regarded as corrective only and although obvious demand is somewhat thin until 75.50 again only an unexpected loss of the distant 72.00/25 support band damages this improving outlook. Otherwise expect any fresh erosion to prove relatively short-lived.

NZD/GBP

Last Price: 0.5633
Daily: Prices still correcting recent extended advances
Weekly: Underlying NZD bull trend on hold for the moment

Support 1: 0.5545/55
Support2: 0.5450/60
Resistance1: 0.5740/50
Resistance2: 0.5845/55

Despite a sharp sell-off from 0.6000 or so in recent weeks NZD values have not yet managed to confirm a meaningful low with risk for further (near term) downside retracement before any exhaustive bottom forms again. Long term studies argue this entire set-back will ultimately prove corrective (little obvious distribution exists from which to sustain a protracted sell off). However prices evidently failed to regain even 0.5750 over the past few days and 0.5550 if not 0.5450 might need to come back into focus prior to fresh demand being uncovered.

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