Higher future power prices loom as generators cut gas and coal plants
By Pattrick Smellie
Aug. 28 (BusinessDesk) - The future wholesale price of electricity is already rising, following decisions by three of
the country's electricity generators to close more than 1,000 Megawatts of installed generation capacity that uses gas
and coal to run.
Auckland-based generator-retailer Mighty River Power highlighted the shift in slides accompanying its earnings
announcement for the year to June 30.
One slide shows that since balance date, some eight weeks ago, the ASX electricity futures market has shown wholesale
electricity settlement prices rise by some $6 per MWh, to around $80 for electricity delivered in 2017. Current
prevailing contract rates for large commercial electricity load are said to be around $70 to $75 per MWh.
Contact Energy is removing its 400MW gas-fired Otahuhu-B unit from service at the end of September, Genesis Energy is
committed to withdrawing 500MW from the market by closing its elderly gas and coal-fired plant at Huntly by the end of
2018, and MRP is closing its 170MW Southdown gas-fired plant.
All are judged uneconomic following a major switch in the last five years to geothermal energy for baseload electricity,
displacing much of the demand for so-called thermal generation units, burning fossil fuels, and the construction of
fast-starting 'peaker' plants, which are built to run on gas to meet occasional gaps in supply.
The MRP slides show that closing thermal generation capacity will start to have an impact on security of electricity
supply by about 2019, with the extent of the impact dependent on whether and how strongly demand for electricity picks
up.
From 2019 onwards, currently installed generation looks unlikely to be able to meet national grid operator Transpower's
"winter energy margin" because of the announced thermal plant closures. The winter energy margin is the buffer the
electricity system operator believes is necessary to prevent a threat of brown-outs or black-outs during periods of peak
demand. New Zealand has most commonly faced such circumstances during winters following low inflows during summer to
South Island hydro catchment lakes.
After seven years of static demand, a combination of increased dairying, irrigation, migration and a cold winter pushed
demand in the year to June 30. Annual load growth of "between 1 and 2 percent a year" was anticipated, said MRP chief
executive Fraser Whineray in a briefing on the result, which saw MRP's underlying earnings drop $45 million to $145
million, reflecting the lowest ever hydro inflows to its Waikato catchment in the year under review.
The fact that there had been no case to use thermal power stations to cope with reduced hydro output in its worst hydro
year showed why closing Southdown made sense, said Whineray. Efforts to sell the Southdown plant were proceeding. Its
LN6000 turbines were among the most widely used in the world.
The company is also selling its Chilean geothermal assets and warned there could be a further writedown of up to $10
million against their disposal. Writedowns on the disposal of US geothermal investments delivered an $83 million hit to
net profit after tax, which was down 78 percent to $47 million, and included a further $44 million writedown on the
Southdown assets.
(BusinessDesk)