HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.6887
Daily: Oversold but rebounds continue to prove corrective
Weekly: Directly negative NZD tone intact beneath 0.7025
Support 1: 0.6820/30
Support2: 0.6740/50
Resistance1: 0.6945/55
Resistance2: 0.7025/35

Oversold daily readings notwithstanding values have spurned several obvious opportunities to bottom out in recent days and with trend confidence readings still rising at present further erosion cannot be ruled out before a more meaningful low is confirmed. In the meantime selling pressure begins at 0.6950 then 0.7025 areas and studies argue a recovery back beyond this latter level at least will be needed to reduce selling pressure. Otherwise although some demand exists at 0.6825 an extension nearer 0.6750 is readable first/next.

NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.8941
Daily: Bearish but medium term objectives met at 0.8850
Weekly: Macro technical picture continues to deteriorate
Support 1: 0.8845/55
Support2: 0.8740/50
Resistance1: 0.9050/60
Resistance2: 0.9140/50

Near to medium term NZD trends remain bearish but with primary objectives at 0.8850 more or less been realised already in recent days risk is increasing for a more substantial rebound over coming sessions. Technical studies argue any such rally will probably prove corrective (an important top has been posted already this year). However the oversold daily environment and presence of buying interest extending down to 0.8750 suggests further/direct erosion could prove difficult to sustain and local supply is thin until 0.9050.

NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.6147
Daily: Bearish but psychological support evident at 0.6000
Weekly: Risk still apparent toward 0.5750 while below 0.6475
Support 1: 0.5990/00
Support2: 0.5915/25
Resistance1: 0.6220/30
Resistance2: 0.6300/10

Sharply over-extended daily readings and the presence of at least psychological demand at 0.6000 may well be sufficient to stem further NZD deterioration for now but without any obvious base work rally attempts will probably prove corrective only. A reaction bounce would not be untoward and little effective selling pressure is apparent until 0.6300 then 0.6475 again. However in the absence of a protracted accumulative pattern NZD buying interest likely to dissipate thereafter and 0.6750 remains reachable looking ahead.

NZD/JPY
Last Price: 85.35
Daily: Bearish but prices oversold nearing 84.00 support
Weekly: Negative tone maintained until 88.50 is regained
Support 1: 84.00/10
Support2: 82.40/50
Resistance1: 86.50/60
Resistance2: 88.00/10

As elsewhere oversold near term readings and the presence of support around prior notable lows should allow the market here to re-stabilise at least initially. However ongoing NZD-specific weakness suggests any fresh recovery is part of a broad range at best and without additional evidence further deterioration cannot be ruled out over coming days. Recoveries will encounter little meaningful resistance until 86.50 or so but major supply awaits beyond 88.00 and unless regained 84.00 demand remains vulnerable to attack.

NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.4389
Daily: Bearish but NZD values sharply oversold at present
Weekly: Negative tone still intact while 0.4700 holds above
Support 1: 0.4250/60
Support2: 0.4145/55
Resistance1: 0.4445/55
Resistance2: 0.4550/60

Any opportunity for prices here to stage a meaningful recovery going forward will be lessened if key structural support at 0.4150 is even temporarily penetrated. For now an over- sold daily and indeed weekly environment may well offer some respite and the rate of recent erosion has left behind little in the way of obvious resistance until 0.4450 then 0.4550 areas. However values would need to hurdle 0.4700 as well to reduce bearish risk appreciably and otherwise continued weakness cannot be ruled out targeting 0.4250 or so next.

ENDS

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