HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.7148
Daily: Nearby NZD supports still vulnerable to attack
Weekly: Directly bearish until/unless 0.7350 regained
Support 1: 0.7070/80
Support2: 0.6990/00
Resistance1: 0.7195/05
Resistance2: 0.7275/85

Trend confidence levels are still rising at present with NZD prices expected to extend recent weakness nearer to 0.7070/80 if not 0.6990/00 areas over coming sessions. Intervening recoveries face heavy selling pressure around 0.7275 then 0.7350 and in the absence of a more obvious basing pattern upside potential looks somewhat limited from a short term perspective. However preliminary evidence implies USD buying interest may well dissipate at least temporarily once this current sell-off has explored the psychological 0.7000 level.

NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.9186
Daily: Directly negative whilst 0.9275/85 holds above
Weekly: Important NZD top already in place at 0.9975
Support 1: 0.9095/05
Support2: 0.8970/80
Resistance1: 0.9275/85
Resistance2: 0.9400/10

Although macro NZD technicals are continuing to deteriorate previous notable lows around 0.8850 are nonetheless probably out of reach from a short to medium term standpoint with good demand likely to emerge around 0.9100 or 0.8975 areas over coming sessions. Re-emergent strength here is now considered corrective and thus unsustainable in broad terms (sub-0.8500 objectives are readable eventually). However the lack of distribution work suggests regular reaction bounces are likely to be more of a feature going forwards.

NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.6347
Daily: Directly bearish tone intact beneath 0.6525
Weekly: Prices remain under pressure for the moment
Support 1: 0.6265/75
Support2: 0.6190/00
Resistance1: 0.6450/60
Resistance2: 0.6520/30

As elsewhere NZD prices here remain under considerable pressure at present with the market unable to sustain its recent rebound from 0.6500. A rally back beyond 0.6520/30 is now needed to reduce immediate negative pressure and some resistance otherwise exists around 0.6450/60 as well. Meanwhile although local demand is apparent in the 0.6275 area an extension nearer to 0.6200 would not surprise before stronger demand is met. Values could conceivably re-stabilise thereafter but interim bounces are seen as untenable.

NZD/JPY
Last Price: 88.90
Daily: /Selling pressure dissipating beneath 88.00
Weekly: Broad range still unfolding either side of 90.00
Support 1: 87.25/35
Support2: 85.50/60
Resistance1: 90.00/10
Resistance2: 91.75/85

With both components of this cross pair simultaneously under pressure against a resurgent U.S. Dollar over recent days market activity here is still choppy and directionless for the most part. Although several related crosses (GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY for example) have clearly broken up from well-established ranges this pairing remains rangebound either side of 90.00 and further consolidation appears likely in coming sessions. Local buying interest is being met beneath 88.00 but rebounds also face resistance extending back toward 92.00.

NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.4665
Daily: Prices still being attracted toward local support
Weekly: Bear risk towards 0.4500 while 0.4850 unbroken
Support 1: 0.4570/80
Support2: 0.4490/00
Resistance1: 0.4775/85
Resistance2: 0.4850/60

Some of the recent bearish impetus has dissipated in recent days but despite current oversold readings further NZD deterioration cannot be ruled out before an important bottom is posted. Looking further ahead prices may well be able to recoup most of their recent sell-off but for now rebounds are considered untenable unless/until a recovery back above 0.4850 at least can be engineered. Meanwhile notwithstanding this gradual loss of negative momentum supply starts at 0.4775 and obvious support is thin until 0.4575 or 0.4500.

ENDS

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