HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

HiFX Weekly FX Technical Report

NZD/USD
Last Price: 0.7558
Daily: Prices still pivoting 0.7550 or so at present
Weekly:  Negative pattern intact below 0.7900
Support 1: 0.7470/80
Support2: 0.7390/00
Resistance1: 0.7625/35
Resistance2: 0.7700/10

Although the market was recently rejected at important looking 0.7700 resistance some buying interest is also being met towards 0.7400 and for now at least NZD values here are rangebound again. Broader technical readings remain negative in any case and while this March reactive high is undisturbed another (more or less direct) sell-off should still develop over coming weeks. Nonetheless an extension of this interim holding pattern would not surprise in the next few days at least with attention evidently focused elsewhere at present.

NZD/AUD
Last Price: 0.9825
Daily: /Heavy supply envisaged either side of 1.0000
Weekly: /Broader NZD recovery sequence maturing
Support 1: 0.9665/75
Support2: 0.9500/10
Resistance1: 0.9970/80
Resistance2: 1.0150/60

Intermediate NZD bull trends thus far remain intact but it is possible to make the case for recent gains being exhaustive. With psychological selling pressure still apparent at/around 1.0000 any drop back through 0.9675 would encourage a developing top argument (and this will be confirmed once 0.9500 secondary support gives way as well. For now further probing of recent 0.9975 highs cannot be ruled out and an extension beyond towards 1.0150 could yet unfold as well. However such levels if indeed seen are probably untenable. 

NZD/EUR
Last Price: 0.7006
Daily: /Prices effectively consolidating around 0.7000
Weekly: Bullish outlook targeting 0.7500 eventually
Support 1: 0.6925/35
Support2: 0.6820/30
Resistance1: 0.7100/10
Resistance2: 0.7190/00

Underlying trends here will remain positive in the absence of a broad (and as yet thus unseen) distribution pattern and even a drop back through recent 0.6825 area corrective lows would probably only delay further NZD gains going forward. However the market has already advanced substantially over recent weeks and thus some additional preparation may well prove necessary before an anticipated extension towards 0.7500 develops. In the meantime fresh dips have some support around 0.6925 but also nearby resistance at 0.7100.

NZD/JPY
Last Price: 90.74
Daily: Mkt re-consolidating either side of 90.00
Weekly: Directly bullish tone while 87.25 holds below
Support 1: 87.25/50 
Support2: 85.50/75
Resistance1: 91.75/00
Resistance2: 94.00/25

As elsewhere NZD prices here are currently tracking sideways (in this case either side of the psychological 90.00 level) as prior volatility is digested. Thus far broad technicals remain positive and indeed until/unless the distant 83.25/50 support band gives way no significant top can form. However prior 94.00 cycle highs are also being protected at present with local selling pressure emerging around 91.75/00. Fresh dips will probably be limited in duration unless 87.25/50 demand gives way but a range otherwise persists for the moment.

NZD/GBP
Last Price: 0.5079
Daily: Market still tracking sideways around 0.5000
Weekly: 0.4750-0.5250 choppy range remains in force
Support 1: 0.4950/60
Support2: 0.4845/55
Resistance1: 0.5150/60
Resistance2: 0.5250/60

Prices here may well have spurned an opportunity to move significantly lower by repeatedly stalling around 0.4750 in recent weeks (thus keeping 0.4500 out of reach) and given a macro ascending sequence thus remains intact further NZD strength would not surprise going forwards. For now at least selling pressure at 0.5150 and 0.5250 continues to restrict upside potential but an extension beyond will improve both near and medium term technical readings -targeting 0.5650+ eventually. Fresh dups also have local support at 0.4950.

ENDS

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