Employment activity expected to slow after 4Qs strong growth

New Zealand’s employment activity expected to slow after four quarters of strong growth
Manpower Employment Outlook Q2 2015

NEW ZEALAND (10 March 2014): The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today, shows New Zealand employers expect hiring activity in Q2 2015 to be slower than Q1, but still steady.

After a healthy and consistent Outlook of +27% for the last four quarters, New Zealand employers report a +17% Outlook for Q2 2015, which is still respectable but a considerable decrease of ten percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The results echo a trend in the Asia Pacific region, with employers in three quarters of the region’s surveyed labour markets expecting hiring activity to decrease or remain the same from Q1 2015.

Of the 660 New Zealand employers surveyed, 26 per cent anticipate an increase in their staff levels, 7 per cent anticipate staff reductions, and 66 per cent expect no change in their hiring plans.

Lincoln Crawley, Managing Director ManpowerGroup Australia and New Zealand says that despite the decrease, conditions in the labour market have actually remained firm.

‘We’re not particularly surprised to see hiring in the New Zealand market level out after a strong year. The rebuild continues to drive activity, and retail sales rose more than expected in the fourth quarter last year, led by vehicle-related transactions, food, and beverages; adding to evidence that the market will remain buoyant.

“Some organisations have got their hiring mixes correct for now. While some employers, who have been searching for talent for a sustained amount of time, are revaluating needs and looking at different workforce solutions available to them,” he said.

Comparing regions, employers in Christchurch and Auckland both reported hopeful Outlooks of +22% and +20% respectively, while Wellington employers expect hiring activity to be mild at +7%, a decrease of 21 percentage points from last quarter.

Table 1. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Region

Q2 2015 Quarter-on-Quarter Change Year-on-Year Change
National +17% -10% -10%
Auckland +20% -6% -7%
Christchurch +22% -3% -6%
Wellington +7% -21% -19%

The Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector is looking particularly prosperous with an Outlook of +36%, up eight percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Transportation & Utilities is also looking active with an Outlook of +25%.

However, employment forecasts for Mining & Construction have dropped by 30 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to +13%, their weakest outlook since Q2 2012. After recording the highest outlook for a decade last quarter (+29%), employers in the Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade sector have recorded an Outlook of +12% for Q2 2015, a drop of 17 percentage points.

Table 2. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Sector

Q2 2015 Quarter-on-Quarter Change Year-on-Year Change
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate +36% +8% -1%
Manufacturing +17% -2% -7%
Mining & Construction +13% -30% -29%
Public Administration +16% -4% +2%
Services +19% -7% -13%
Transportation & Utilities +25% -5% -10%
Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade +12% -17% -7%

Looking across different organisations sizes, there will be healthy employment activity in both Small and Medium sized organisations at +27%, but only moderate within Micro and Large businesses at +7% and +13% respectively. There will be a considerable decrease in hiring in large businesses especially, with the Outlook down 11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.

Table 3. Net Employment Outlook Comparison by Organisation size

Q2 2015 Quarter-on-Quarter Change Year-on-Year Change
Micro (<10) +7% -6% -14%
Small (10-49) +27% -2% -4%
Medium (50-249) +27% -5% -1%
Large (>250) +13% -11% -11%


Table 4. APAC Q2 2015 results

Country Q2 2015 NEO Quarter-on Quarter change Year-on-Year change
TAIWAN +45% +2% +7%
INDIA +38% -8% -4%
JAPAN +19% -1% +2%
NEW ZEALAND +17% -10% -10%
HONG KONG +16% +1% +0%
SINGAPORE +14% -4% -4%
AUSTRALIA +8% +0% -1%
CHINA +8% -3% -7%

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About ManpowerGroup

ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN) is the world leader in innovative workforce solutions that ensure the talent sustainability of the world’s workforce for the good of companies, communities, countries, and individuals themselves. Specializing in solutions that help organizations achieve business agility and workforce flexibility, ManpowerGroup leverages its 65 years of world of work expertise to create the work models, design the people practices and access the talent sources its clients need for the future. From staffing, recruitment, workforce consulting, outsourcing and career management to assessment, training and development, ManpowerGroup delivers the talent to drive the innovation and productivity of organizations in a world where talentism is the dominant economic system. Every day, ManpowerGroup connects more than 630,000 people to work and builds their experience and employability through its relationships with 400,000 clients across 80 countries and territories. ManpowerGroup’s suite of solutions is offered through ManpowerGroup™ Solutions, Manpower®, Experis™ and Right Management®. ManpowerGroup was named one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the third consecutive year in 2013, confirming our position as the most trusted brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup makes powering the world of work humanly possible at www.manpowergroup.co.nz. Follow ManpowerGroup on Twitter: Twitter.com/ManpowerGroupNZ

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