Farmax: A Positive Outlook for Spring

A Positive Outlook for Spring

The calendar has rolled over to October already and we are one month into spring. The daffodils have come and gone, and soil temperatures on the up, but has spring arrived?

Looking back over winter the weather conditions have been far from ‘average’.

For most of the East Coast and Northland, June and July made for a dream run. Temperatures were mild, stock were in good condition and achieving growth rates with plenty of feed around.

Farmax clients across Northland, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay during July had pasture covers 100-300 kilograms of Dry Matter per hectare (kgDM/ha) higher than the previous year and the feeling was upbeat.

However, Mother Nature was not finished with winter.

Early July brought widespread flooding and strong winds to Northland, with up to 500mm of rainfall in parts of the region within a single week.

The East Coast was also caught with a cold-snap passing through during August knocking down soil temperatures, pasture growth and stock performance.

Typically, over July and August, pasture covers are close to bottoming out as farmers look to scrape through to balance date (the point where pasture growth exceeds animal demand) when the spring flush takes off.

Over this period pasture covers generally hold steady.

Thanks to the floods and cold-snap, Farmax customers found that pasture covers dropped a further 100kgDM/ha which put more pressure on at a key time of the year when feeding levels are already tight.

What does the mixed winter mean for farms now?

Comparing feed levels for August with the same time last winter, Farmax customers in Northland are generally sitting alright with more feed than a year ago. Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay are faring similarly to last winter.

Looking forward into spring, things are looking up and we are all hoping the market and climatic stars will align for a good season.

NIWA is predicting the chances of El Nino developing over spring “appear to be lessening”, and that the chances of higher than usual temperatures over August to October “are likely to be above average”.

Considering August temperatures have been below average, this will surely mean October will be well above average, resulting in good conditions for lambing.

Soil temperatures across Northland and Hawke’s Bay are sitting above nine degrees, so expect to see pasture growth kicking in soon.

The outlook for beef and lamb prices is also looking positive with lamb pricing also on the up.

After the spike in lamb pricing during the summer of 2011/12 which was follow by a drop, pricing is recovering well and sitting at $6.20/kg for lamb which we hope is a more sustainable price for farmer and end consumers.

Looking forward from the current pricing, we would generally expect schedules to hold until October, then to decline as more stock comes forward for slaughter.

Market predictions for pricing from November onwards look very strong and are factoring in a lot smaller drop than history would suggest.

All in all, after a tough late winter, conditions are looking up with warm weather and good pricing on its way.

As the saying goes, it pays to ‘make hay while the sun shines’.

By Steve Howarth
Senior Technical Specialist
FARMAX

-ENDS-

© Scoop Media