Media release
ASB Cantometer Index
EMBARGOED until 5am Friday 26 September
Businesses displaying more confidence as Cantometer hits new high
•The ASB Cantometer rose to fresh high of 1.9 in September.
•Businesses demonstrating confidence in major construction projects.
•Tourism recovery slow but steady.
The Cantometer index rose to a fresh high of 1.9 in September, compared to the previous high of 1.8 in August.
“Construction activity continues to stand out with continued gains across both residential and non-residential
construction,” says ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley. “An increase in major construction projects is a good sign as
businesses begin to feel more confident about committing to large-scale projects.”
“Positive construction activity is flowing through to firm demand in other areas as employment opportunities continue to
pull new workers to the region. Households are feeling more confident about making major purchases, and this is
reflected in increased car sales.”
“Tourism in the region is recovering, albeit at a slower rate than other areas of the economy. However, the addition of
international capacity flying into Christchurch Airport should boost visitor numbers to the region over the coming
year.”
Outlook
Construction growth should continue to remain a key driver of Canterbury economic activity over the next couple of
years, says Mr Tuffley.
“The earthquake rebuild will likely continue to underpin further strengthening in the Canterbury labour market as more
workers flock to the region. The consequent lift in incomes should continue to underpin healthy discretionary household
spending, particularly in big-ticket items.”
About the Cantometer
The Cantometer is designed to summarise activity in Canterbury. The study takes a range of publicly available regional
economic data, which are standardised and aggregated into a summary measure. The index has been rebased to zero in June
2010 (the end of the quarter immediately preceding the first earthquake) such that a positive number represents activity
being above pre-earthquake levels.
Along with the aggregate Cantometer index, there are five sub categories: Construction, Housing, Employment, Consumer
spending and Miscellaneous*. These sub-indices will provide some insight into which sectors are driving the rebuild
activity at a given point in time.
For most activity the data reference the level of activity. However, when incorporating wages and house prices into the
index we believe levels are less informative. Instead the index uses prices relative to the rest of the country. An
increase in relative prices is a signal for resources to be reallocated to the Canterbury region.
The historical Cantometer series represented on the charts is a simple average of the complete set of data for each
month.
*The miscellaneous category includes car registrations, guest nights and permanent and long-term net migration. A common
factor driving these areas will be population growth, and we expect all these indicators to increase as the rebuild
gathers momentum.
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