NZ dollar holds near seven-month low ahead of Reserve Bank decision
By Tina Morrison
Sept. 11 (BusinessDesk) - The New Zealand dollar held near a seven-month low ahead of the Reserve Bank decision on
interest rates today where governor Graeme Wheeler is expected to signal rates will remain on hold for longer than
previously forecast.
The kiwi was unchanged at 82.36 US cents at 8am in Wellington, from the same level at 5pm yesterday. The trade-weighted
index was at 78.88 from 78.84 yesterday.
Wheeler is expected to keep the official cash rate on hold at 3.5 percent ahead of next week's general election, and as
he assesses the impact of four hikes so far this year. Traders will be focused on whether he will pull back his track
for future interest rate increases in light of weaker inflation and declining prices or the country's key export
commodities such as dairy products and logs weigh on growth.
"After four consecutive hikes the RBNZ is widely tipped to keep the OCR on hold at today’s September Monetary Policy
Statement while conveying a less hawkish policy stance," ANZ Bank New Zealand strategist Carrick Lucas and senior
foreign exchange strategist Sam Tuck said in a note.
"While the RBNZ will want to keep their options open as to the timing of future OCR hikes and the published projections
will carry a lot of conditionality around them, we expect the 90-day bank bill track to be tweaked down closer to
current market pricing, with a slightly lower endpoint (sub 5 percent) consistent with a March start to OCR hikes and
more moderate path of policy tightening," they said.
Following the release of the interest rate decision at 9am today, Wheeler will front a press conference and appear
before parliament's finance and expenditure committee.
Wheeler may reiterate his previous comments that the strength of the New Zealand currency is "unjustified", as it is
still a headwind for exporters despite recent declines, ANZ said. The kiwi has dropped almost 7 percent from its 88.35
US cent peak in July.
The New Zealand dollar will probably trade between 81.60 US cents and 82.60 cents today, ANZ said.
In Australia, the focus will be on the release of Australian employment data for August.
The local currency is little changed at 89.89 Australian cents from 89.85 cents yesterday and 63.78 euro cents from
63.72 cents. The kiwi dropped to 50.79 British pence from 51.11 pence yesterday as sterling strengthened after a new
poll suggested Scotland wouldn't split from the UK. The New Zealand dollar advanced to 87.95 yen from 87.68 yen
yesterday.
(BusinessDesk)