February 2014 - Rabobank Agribusiness Monthly & Rural Economics Monthly
The Rabobank Agribusiness Monthly provides timely information and analysis on agricultural conditions, commodity price updates and commentary on the
latest sectoral trends and developments. In conjunction, the Rural Economics Monthly provides a useful overview of the key macro developments in the local and global economies while also covering specific
economic developments relevant to New Zealand and Australian agricultural sectors.
Key highlights
Agribusiness Monthly
• Beef – Strong Chinese demand drives growth in beef exports
• Dairy – Chinese supply issues to drive commodity markets in 2014
• Other costs – Baltic Dry Index weak as global economy takes wrong turn
• Fertilizer - All eyes on demand fundamentals in 2014
• Climate - Mostly normal outlook for New Zealand
• Currency – New Zealand dollar supported by solid economic growth
Rural Economics Monthly
• The RBNZ leaves the official cash rate on hold in January, but makes its future intentions very clear
• New Zealand rural commodity prices lift further in January on higher dairy prices and a lower NZD
• Global GDP growth is expected to strengthen in 2014 as major advanced economies assume a greater role
• Removal of monetary stimulus in the U.S. will elevate the USD, but the NZD isn’t expected to yield