Tony Alexander Weekly Overview 11 July 2013

Tony Alexander Weekly Overview

US tapering and rising NZ growth mean rising NZ interest rates and a recovering NZD.

Welcome to the July 11 Weekly Overview.
A full pdf copy of the Weekly Overview is loaded here.
The weekly Youtube commentary has returned and is located here. 6.14 minutes
New subscribers can be added to the emailing list here.
I’ll be taking a break over the next two weeks so the next Weekly Overview will come out on August 1 and from here on there will be no issues produced during all school holidays.

Lead Article – NZ Economy growing
US tapering of money printing will engender substantial volatility in financial markets over the coming year or so. Plus I examine the issue of whether people who are retired have lower spending intentions than other age groups. They seem to.   1,204 words

The Week’s Data
Business sentiment in the NZIER’s survey is steady, but employment and investment intentions are rising, more businesses are planning to raise their selling prices, and more businesses are saying lack of labour and capacity are constraining their growth.   427 words

Interest Rates
Rates are trending upward with a lot more to come once the NZ tightening cycle starts next year. History shows us that the rate cycle kicked upward in 1994 and peaked in 1998, then again in 2004 with a peak in 2008. So does a 2014 start mean a peak in 2018?   378 words

NZ Housing Market
Nothing much new this week though we shall release the results of our latest BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey in a few days.  509 words.

Offshore
US jobs data were strong last Friday night and expectations of tapering have grown. But across the ditch unemployment is rising and that is going to drive more Kiwis back here and discourage more to not head over there.   480 words.

Exchange Rates
The NZD has risen this week against the British Pound and Euro as central bank leaders in those regions try to assure markets that they will keep monetary policy loose for a long time.   394 words

Some things are best kept private - introduction to BNZ Private Bank
If you would like to speak with one of our Private Bankers to review your personal situation, feel free to contact us for a discreet obligation free discussion on 0800 477 077 or email us at privatebank@bnz.co.nz.  To find out more about BNZ Private Bank, please visit www.bnzprivatebank.co.nz
Tony Alexander produces six regular publications.
The monthly Growing With China issues are here.
The monthly Brain Gain NZ can be located here.
The Weekly Overviews are loaded here.
The monthly BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Surveys are posted here.
The monthly BNZ Confidence Surveys are available here.
The monthly BNZ-Nine Rewards Consumer Trends Survey is here.

Other recent publications include the following.
The Cyprus Haircut
Sources of Western Apprehension About China
Expat Experiences of NZ Hiring
Advice from NZ employers to expats and migrants
19 Reasons Why Auckland House Prices Will Keep Rising. Page 5 of
Massey University Symposium Handout on Housing Affordability
Kiwi Business Locus of Control at a Distance

All the best

Tony Alexander
Chief Economist
www.tonyalexander.co.nz
LinkedIn Profile
TonyLinkedIn

ENDS

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