Morningstar Equities - WPL, FSF-NZ, FSF

Morningstar Equities - WPL, FSF-NZ, FSF

Woodside Petroleum Limited WPL| 7:00AM | Woodside Dividend Manna from Heaven

Morningstar Recommendation: Accumulate

We downgrade our Woodside fair value estimate by one-third to AUD 43 per share. Key among a number of tweaks driving the downgrade is higher assumed sustaining capital expenditure, which more than offsets marginally lower growth capital expenditure. The dynamic reflects an expectation that production will be sustained more from existing projects than from greenfield developments. Forecast returns on invested capital for late in the decade fall from high double digits to mid-double digits. Returns for mid-decade are still expected to plumb high single digits anticipating a return to heavy growth capital expenditures, chiefly Pluto LNG Train 2, Browse LNG and Sunrise LNG. Returns are currently a respectable 12% excluding capital expenditure attributed to projects yet to produce.

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund FSF-NZ| 7:00AM | Trimming Estimates for Fonterra on Near-Term Headwind

Morningstar Recommendation: Reduce

Correction: Our previously published report displayed an incorrect New Zealand dollar fair value estimate. The correct fair value estimate for Fonterra is NZD 6.50.
Fonterra recently announced an opening forecast Farmgate Milk Price (FMP) of NZD 7.00 per kg of milk solids (MS) for the 2013/2014 season which began on 1 June 2013, an increase of NZD 1.20 compared with the 2012/2013 season. The firm also indicated its operating earnings will be hit by NZD 25 million (or NZD 1.5 cents per share) in 2013 as it was required to supply large volumes of milk (as per the raw milk regulation) to competitors at subsidised prices from March to May because of the drought. In light of this impact, and the ongoing investments in China to support the company's growth plans, we are trimming our 2013 and 2014 forecasts by 4% and 6% respectively.

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