2013 Update on the Treasury’s Forecasting Performance

2013 Update on the Treasury’s Forecasting Performance

The Treasury has released updated statistics on its economic and tax forecasting performance, covering forecasts up to 2012. These statistics are an update to the 2011 Report on the Treasury’s Forecasting Performance. The information includes comparisons with a sample of main forecasters of the New Zealand economy.

Key findings of the 2013 Update are:
·         the Treasury remains among the top 1 or 2 forecasters of real GDP growth and CPI inflation over the last 10 years
·         average forecast errors for real GDP growth, nominal GDP growth and CPI inflation are similar to those of the 2011 Report
·         average forecast errors for the longer-horizon forecasts of tax revenue and receipts have increased, mainly because of relatively large forecast errors through the 2008/9 recession
·         there is no evidence of statistical bias in forecasts of real GDP growth, nominal GDP growth, tax revenue and tax receipts (forecasts are neither persistently too high nor too low), but there is some evidence of statistical bias in the CPI inflation forecasts.

The full 2013 Update is available at www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/informationreleases/forecastingperformance/reviews

The Treasury has published regular assessments of its economic and tax forecasting performance since 2003. The 2011 Report and earlier reports are also available on the Treasury website at the link above.

ENDS

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