Tony Alexander: Weekly Overview May 30

The Reserve Bank won't tighten NZ monetary policy for a long time, but rising US bond yields are pushing NZ fixed rates up.

Welcome to the May 30 Weekly Overview.
A full pdf copy of the Weekly Overview is loaded here.
In my Youtube clip this week I finish my special look at housing. 7.57 minutes

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This is the last Thursday of the month so we are running our BNZ Confidence Survey. From this month the survey will be expanded slightly to elicit more information which we hope will help inform various debates growing in importance in this country.
http://feedback.bnz.co.nz/mail/link/_nNsTpVbMDO7v4nEfyS5wQ

Lead Article – Nothing much this week
This section is quite light this week as I have written quite a bit elsewhere. 211 words

Some of the Week’s Economic Data
Exports have been falling for a year and a half but construction is heading up. 229 words

Interest Rates
Medium to long term wholesale interest rates have jumped up this past week on the back of positive NZ news and higher rates in the United States. 294 words

NZ Housing Market
Did you know that gross migrant flows into NZ have risen by 3,410 in the past year with Kiwi citizens accounting for 1,870 or 55% of that? Chinese people account for 238 or 7% of the change, Australians 632 or 18.5%. 1,266 words.

Offshore
In Australia it’s all about slowing growth and the need for lower interest rates as the mining development boom ends. In China growth forecasts are also being newly cut as manufacturing data get worse, corruption attacks reduce sales of restaurants and high priced watch stores, yet house prices keep rising. In Europe folk are excited at the prospect of less fiscal austerity – failing to realise that simply means more debt and debt servicing costs down the track and greater vulnerability to the world’s next shock. In the US data have been looking good but worries are building over a housing bubble and what effect reduced money printing will one day have. In Japan early optimism about Abenomics is fading as the sharemarket gives up some of its ludicrous gains. 1,746 words.

Exchange Rates
The NZD has risen further against a down in the dumps Aussie dollar, but movement against other currencies is nothing much to write home about. 291 words
Some things are best kept private - introduction to BNZ Private Bank
If you would like to speak with one of our Private Bankers to review your personal situation, feel free to contact us for a discreet obligation free discussion on 0800 477 077 or email us at privatebank@bnz.co.nz. To find out more about BNZ Private Bank, please visit www.bnzprivatebank.co.nz
Tony Alexander produces six regular publications.
The monthly Growing With China issues are here.
The monthly Brain Gain NZ can be located here.
The Weekly Overviews are loaded here.
The monthly BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Surveys are posted here.
The monthly BNZ Confidence Surveys are available here.
The monthly BNZ-Nine Rewards Consumer Trends Survey is here.

Other recent publications include the following.
The Cyprus Haircut
Sources of Western Apprehension About China
Expat Experiences of NZ Hiring
Advice from NZ employers to expats and migrants
19 Reasons Why Auckland House Prices Will Keep Rising. Page 5 of
Massey University Symposium Handout on Housing Affordability
Kiwi Business Locus of Control at a Distance

ENDS

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