BNZ Weekly Overview: Migration could be about to boom...

Migration could be about to boom, that means higher house prices, hence a special look at housing in my Youtube video this week..

Welcome to the May 23 Weekly Overview.
A full pdf copy of the Weekly Overview is loaded here.

In my Youtube clip this week I take a special look at housing – hence the longer than usual running time. Here. 7.51 minutes

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Lead Article – Who You Gonna Hire?
Once the Christchurch rebuild gets going and Auckland house building rises off the floor, NZ’s unemployment rate could go back to the 3.5% of 2007. Do you realise you’ll need to learn how to effectively utilise expats and migrants, and have you considered hiring the many older people who these days have no intention of going into that quiet golf-resplendent night?
1,043 words

Some of the Week’s Economic Data
Oh my oh my. Annualised net migration inflows are running now near 15,000. Previous migration peaks have been 30,000, 42,000 and 23,000. We know what this means for house prices first in Auckland then elsewhere. This is my fifth housing cycle and I’ll take a punt here to say that based on the previous two, Auckland inner city apartments are about to spike. 575 words

Interest Rates
Rates have risen a wee bit further this week on the back of US ten year bond yields rising to a 13 month high above 2%. As speculation about the Fed tapering its asset buying programme grows, rates will tend to rise further. 146 words

NZ Housing Market
Residential construction costs have risen by 3.1% in the past year but house building is still well below average. Imagine what will happen when construction doubles! 220 words.

Offshore
This week I take a very quick look at each of the major parts of the world. 433 words.

Exchange Rates
The NZD has fallen again against the greenback but remains strong on the crosses as the main thing moving out there is a rising USD driven up by speculation of the Fed. soon tapering off its money printing operations. That is a hard thing to pick however so expect high currency volatility.
581 words
Some things are best kept private - introduction to BNZ Private Bank
If you would like to speak with one of our Private Bankers to review your personal situation, feel free to contact us for a discreet obligation free discussion on 0800 477 077 or email us at privatebank@bnz.co.nz. To find out more about BNZ Private Bank, please visit www.bnzprivatebank.co.nz
Tony Alexander produces six regular publications.
The monthly Growing With China issues are here.
The monthly Brain Gain NZ can be located here.
The Weekly Overviews are loaded here.
The monthly BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Surveys are posted here.
The monthly BNZ Confidence Surveys are available here.
The monthly BNZ-Nine Rewards Consumer Trends Survey is here.

Other recent publications include the following.
The Cyprus Haircut
Sources of Western Apprehension About China
Expat Experiences of NZ Hiring
Advice from NZ employers to expats and migrants
19 Reasons Why Auckland House Prices Will Keep Rising. Page 5 of
Massey University Symposium Handout on Housing Affordability
Kiwi Business Locus of Control at a Distance

All the best

Tony Alexander
Chief Economist
www.tonyalexander.co.nz
LinkedIn Profile
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Any views expressed in this publication are the views of Tony Alexander and do not necessarily represent those of BNZ, or its related entities. The information in this publication is provided for general information purposes only, and is a summary based on selective information which may not be complete for your purpose. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person's particular financial situation or goals. Bank of New Zealand recommends that you seek advice specific to your circumstances from your financial adviser. Neither Bank of New Zealand nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.

ENDS

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