January 1, 2013
Media Release
HorizonPoll: New Zealanders expect agriculture and exporting to increase; household incomes, employment and
manufacturing to decline
A HorizonPoll survey of what Kiwis think will happen with the economy in 2013 finds people positive about agriculture,
exporting and research and development. But they expect a decline in manufacturing, employment and household incomes.
Adults nationwide were asked to give their view of whether the economy, employment, research and development, exporting,
agriculture, retail spending, household incomes and environmental improvement would grow, stay the same or decline.
“For most of these areas, around a third of respondents thought there would be no change,” says Grant McInman, manager
of Horizon Research. “However, with employment and manufacturing, only around 20% thought there would be no change and
more thought that there would decline rather than growth.”
There was a clear expectation that agriculture would grow, as would exporting. There was an expectation that there would
be slightly more growth than decline in research and development.
On the economy, opinion was split, with 5% more respondents thinking it would decline than grow.
“Generally, people with a household income of $70,000 or more are likely to have a more positive than negative view of
the economy,” says McInman. That view tends to get stronger as household incomes rise, but those with personal incomes
of $200,000 or more and those with post-graduate degrees had a more negative than positive view of the economy. Business
proprietors and self-employed respondents also had a more negative than positive view of the economy.
The outlook on household incomes, employment and manufacturing were the most negative and appear to be inter-related.
35% more respondents expected household incomes to decline in 2013 than expected them to grow, but only 7% more
respondents expected retail spending to decline than expected it to grow. This suggests that retail spending may well
hold up if household incomes did fall.
10% more respondents expected a decline in environmental improvement than expected growth.
In the coming year which of the following do you think will grow or decline in New Zealand?
44.1. The economy
A.
Grow strongly
1.2%
B.
Grow
27.7%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
26.3%
D.
Decline
28.7%
E.
Decline strongly
5.5%
F.
Not sure
10.6%
44.2. Employment
A.
Grow strongly
1.5%
B.
Grow
20.4%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
20.2%
D.
Decline
36.8%
E.
Decline strongly
10.1%
F.
Not sure
11%
44.3. Manufacturing
A.
Grow strongly
0.8%
B.
Grow
18.3%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
22.9%
D.
Decline
35.9%
E.
Decline strongly
6.5%
F.
Not sure
15.5%
44.4. Research and development
A.
Grow strongly
1.4%
B.
Grow
27.5%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
28.4%
D.
Decline
20.6%
E.
Decline strongly
6.1%
F.
Not sure
15.9%
44.5. Exporting
A.
Grow strongly
2.6%
B.
Grow
31.3%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
28%
D.
Decline
19%
E.
Decline strongly
4.3%
F.
Not sure
14.8%
44.6. Agriculture
A.
Grow strongly
3.4%
B.
Grow
33.3%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
32%
D.
Decline
12.8%
E.
Decline strongly
3.2%
F.
Not sure
15.4%
44.7. Retail spending
A.
Grow strongly
2.3%
B.
Grow
23.5%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
31.1%
D.
Decline
26.6%
E.
Decline strongly
6.1%
F.
Not sure
10.5%
44.8. Household incomes
A.
Grow strongly
1.3%
B.
Grow
9%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
32.4%
D.
Decline
35.4%
E.
Decline strongly
10.4%
F.
Not sure
11.4%
44.9. Environmental improvement
A.
Grow strongly
1%
B.
Grow
17.6%
C.
Neither grow nor decline
35.1%
D.
Decline
20.9%
E.
Decline strongly
8.3%
F.
Not sure
17.2%
The HorizonPoll survey of 2,425 respondents aged 18+ was conducted nationwide from 23 November 2012 to 5 December 2012.
Weighted by age, gender, ethnicity, education level, personal income and party vote 2011, to represent the New Zealand
adult population at the 2006 census and last general election, the survey has a maximum margin of error of +/-2.0%
On the web: www.horizonpoll.co.nz