Employment To Grow By 93,700 New Jobs Over 2012- 2014

23 March 2012
Employment To Grow By 93,700 New Jobs Over 2012- 2014: New Department Of Labour Forecasting Series

Employment is forecast to increase by around 93,700 jobs or 4.2% over 2012- 2014 according to the first report in a new labour market forecasting series issued by the Department of Labour today.

The Short-term employment prospects: 2012-14 report is based on a new short term forecasting model developed by the Department of Labour to provide more detailed information on the labour market.

“This new labour market forecasting model will be used to produce twice-yearly short-term employment forecasts in order to inform near-term policy development and advice on skills development, employment and welfare policy issues. The labour market forecast draws on the latest macroeconomic forecasts by the Treasury and the Reserve Bank,” says the Department’s General Manager of the Labour and Immigration Research Centre, Vasantha Krishnan.

“Our model complements other government forecasting as it reports on 11 regions, 28 industries and 96 occupational groups, and allows us to forecast employment growth breakdowns by region, industry and skill level,” Ms Krishnan says.

According to the Department’s forecast, employment will increase gradually, by 1.8% (or 39,600 jobs) in the year to 31 March 2013 and by 2.4% (54,100 jobs) in the year to March 2014.

“Overall, our view is one of slow, steady growth in employment. We would also caution that our forecasts are based on current data and actual job growth will of course be influenced by what is happening in the global economy and by the pace of the Canterbury rebuild,” Ms Krishnan says.

“It is important to note also that this projected employment growth excludes job opportunities that will arise as older workers retire. The Department estimates the job opportunities as a result of people retiring is likely to be about 50,000 jobs annually over the coming years. This means that while 24,000 new jobs could be created in the March 2012 year, another 50,000 people may be required to replace those retiring.”

According to the Department’s forecast, the unemployment rate is expected to trend down slowly over the entire period, to below 6.0% by March 2013 and 5.4% by March 2014.

Strong employment growth is expected in the primary processing, construction and utilities industries, and will be strongest in highly skilled jobs (that is, managers and professionals).

Opportunities for lower-skilled workers are expected to account for more than one-third of the employment growth over the period.

The food processing, retailing, accommodation, agriculture and construction industries are expected to create most of these opportunities.

Employment growth is expected to be strongest in the Auckland region, driven by growth in wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage and business services which are employment-intensive industries and in the Canterbury region, mainly in construction-related activities.

The Short-term Employment Prospects: 2012-14 report is available at this link.

Other labour market research from the Department’s Labour and Immigration Research Centre can be found at www.dol.govt.nz/research

ENDS

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