IG Markets - morning thoughts and opening calls 5/10/11

IG Markets - morning thoughts and opening calls

Overnight, US markets staged a dramatic last hour rebound, spiking sharply in the last 10 minutes of trade to finish with solid gains following a report that EU finance ministers are examining possible ways to recapitalise banks and after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed is willing to do more to support the economy.

Among the major averages the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.4% to end at 10808, the S&P jumped 2.3% to 1123, while the NASDAQ soared 3% to 2404. Most S&P sectors finished higher led by advances in financial and materials names.

With an hour to go in trade it was certainly looking like another dour day for US equities with markets on track on register losses between 1% and 2%, before reports surfaced that EU Finance ministers were examining ways of co-ordinating recapitalisations of financial institutions having agreed more needed to be done to shore up the region’s banks.

That the market reacted so violently (we saw turnarounds in equities in the last hour of trade in the vicinity of 4%) is further evidence of a market desperate to hang its hat on any sort of good news. However, the market should be cognisant that this supposed “Bank Aid Plan” is light on details. Also, recapitalisations require someone to stump up some money. Who’s going to do that? Over the last several months we’ve heard a lot of rhetoric about ‘needing to do more’ but a great reluctance for anyone to reach into their pockets. Until or unless decisive action follows, this may prove just another opportunity to close long positions or establish fresh short positions.

Based on the positive close to the Wall Street session we are currently calling the local market to unwind approximately 40 points or 1% higher at 3912. Gains for our market should be relatively broad based with the US financials, materials, industrials and energy sectors all posting advances of between 2.7% and 3.8%. Despite weaker base metals prices BHP’s ADR is suggesting our heaviest weighted stock will open $1.16 or 3.4% higher at $35.02. Such gains across other major miners and expected gains across the local banking sector suggest a fairly solid day ahead for our market.

On the economic front, Australian monthly retail sales numbers are due out at 11.30am and will be closed scrutinised to gauge the health of the struggling retail sector and by extension the Australian consumer. Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3% for the month.

IG Markets provides round-the-clock CFD trading on currencies, indices and commodities. The levels quoted in this email are the latest tradeable price for each market. The net change for each market is referenced from the corresponding tradeable level at yesterday’s close of the ASX. These levels are specifically tailored for the Australian trader and take into account the 24hr nature of global markets.

Please contact IG Markets if you require market commentary or the latest dealing price.

ENDS

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