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Rabobank report: Coffee Set to Boil?
Rabobank report: Coffee Set to Boil?
The coffee terminal markets have staged an impressive turnaround in the past weeks but in our view this is a short term move and prices will turn lower and continue the trend started in early May. The Robusta market is up 20% since the end of July on thin origin stocks and Arabica in NY is up 12% on strong technical signals and commercial buying. The move higher was supported by strong consumer interest at the recent lows and likely strong fund buying. However, the coming record harvest forecast in Vietnam and increased selling from growers in Brazil are expected to cause the price spike to be short-lived. We expect end-user buying to dry up near the USC 270/lb level for Arabicas and a better supply of washed Arabica from Central America and Colombia to temper the current price rally.
NY ICE Arabica Front Month
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