iPredict launches third Hobbit contract
iPredict launches contract on likelihood of new Hobbit subsidies after market suggests movies are staying in NZ anyway
New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict Ltd, has today launched a third contract concerning "The Hobbit" - this one to
predict whether the New Zealand Government or its agencies will announce additional public support directed at keeping
production of the movies in New Zealand.
The contract follows those examining the likelihood of filming of "The Hobbit" movies leaving New Zealand and the
likelihood of Council of Trade Unions president Helen Kelly remaining in her job through to the end of the year.
"While the market has been volatile over the long weekend, prices suggest that 'The Hobbit' movies are now more likely
than not to remain in New Zealand, while Ms Kelly appears safe in her job," Matt Burgess, Chief Executive of iPredict
said today.
"That has prompted us to launch this new contract to explore the likelihood of the Government increasing public support
for the movies. "The current market prediction, that the movies are staying in New Zealand, suggests either that the
risk of them leaving New Zealand may have been overstated in the media or that market traders are aware of plans for
interventions likely to reverse any decision made in principle by Warner Brothers for them to leave New Zealand."
Mr Burgess said the pricing of the contract on the likelihood the movies would be leaving New Zealand indicated
additional government support may be unnecessary.
"Certainly, if no additional support package has yet been put to Warner Brothers, the market is suggesting it would be
unnecessary for the New Zealand Government to develop one," he said.
"While very preliminary, the initial response to today's new contract, on the likelihood of additional public support,
suggests that the New Zealand Government may very well be assuming the movies are staying in New Zealand, with current
prices indicating there is less than 50% likelihood of the Government increasing public support above that already
available."
The three Hobbit contracts can be found at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse=12 At 4.00 pm today, the market suggested only a 21.98% probability "The Hobbit" would be leaving New Zealand, a 41.74%
probability of additional government support and a 90.02% probability Ms Kelly would keep her job. iPredict is owned by
Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities
Commission. Details on the company and the stock can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz
ENDS