Lamb numbers showing recovery says Meat & Wool

Media Release

Monday 23 November 2009

Lamb numbers showing recovery says Meat & Wool New Zealand

Meat & Wool New Zealand’s Economic Service says this year’s record lambing percentage increased lamb numbers to 28.9 million, up 1.7 million or 6.2 per cent from the 51-year low experienced last spring.

While lamb numbers are still well below the 32.8 million average of the decade to 2007, Economic Service Director, Rob Davison said excellent spring lambing weather brought some recovery.

“This year’s lambing percentage of 124 lambs born per 100 ewes was a record for the country and well up on last spring which had a drought-affected low of 113 lambs born per 100 ewes.

Mr Davison said offsetting the improved lambing percentage was a decrease in the breeding ewe flock of 3.6 per cent due to drought and expansion of the dairy herd.

“Later lambing districts also experienced snow to low levels in October. Some farms in these districts were adversely affected by the snow and prolonged cold conditions.”

Lamb survey numbers collected by Meat & Wool New Zealand Region Managers showed the North Island’s ewe lambing percentage was 117.5, up 12.7 percentage points on last year, but partly offset by a 3.3 per cent reduction in breeding ewes.

“At 13.1 million, the North Island’s total lamb numbers were up 1.1 million (9.2 per cent) from 2008’s drought-affected low. A total of 430,000 or 3.3 per cent were lambs from hoggets.

“The South Island’s ewe lambing percentage was 129.1 per cent, up 8.5 percentage points on 2008. Like the North Island this was partly offset by a 3.8 per cent decrease in breeding ewe numbers. As a result, at 15.8 million the South Island’s lamb numbers were up 6.2 per cent on last year. Within this total 540,000 or 3.4 per cent of lambs were from hoggets, which is an increase on last spring of 162,000.”

The better season also allowed the ewe flock to show its true performance from improved genetics and management systems, relative to the previous decade.

Mr Davison said with the New Zealand lamb crop up 1.7 million, the number of lambs available for export markets is estimated to increase by 1 million to 23.5 million, a 4.4 per cent rise on last year. This number is still 6 per cent below the average export lamb availability in the years from 2000-01 through to 2007-08. The remaining 700,000 lamb increase will be kept for flock replacements.

“The North Island export lamb slaughter is estimated to increase 4.8 per cent to 10.6 million and the South Island export lamb slaughter is estimated to increase 4 per cent to 12.9 million.

“We expect a small increase in the number of ewe lambs retained as replacements this year. Last year farmers kept fewer replacements than we would normally expect because of the cold long winter, their need for cash, and high lamb prices, particularly later in the season.”

While lamb production may be up on last year, Mr Davison said the current exchange rate is a concern.

“Last year’s lamb crop generated $2.8 billion in export receipts. This year we will have higher production and steady offshore market prices, but the current exchange rate is around 17 per cent higher than last year.

“If exchange rates and export prices remained the same as last year, lamb would generate $2.9 billion in export receipts in 2009-10. But if the current higher exchange rates prevail, lamb export receipts will reduce to $2.5 billion, a drop of $400 million despite lamb production increasing 3.5 per cent.”

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