Tourism Spend Forecast to Reach $8.2b by 2015

Media Statement
Friday 18 September 2009

International Tourism Expenditure Forecast to Reach $8.2 billion by 2015

Released today by the Ministry of Tourism, international tourism expenditure (excluding airfares) is forecast to grow by an average of 4.7% per annum to reach $8.2 billion in 2015.

This represents an increase in spending of $2.3 billion per year by 2015, or an increase of 38% from 2008 levels.

In the short-term, international tourism expenditure is expected to be soft (down 2% in 2009), followed by a recovery in 2010 (up 4.5%). A larger increase in spending (up 9.1%) is forecast for 2011. The increase in this year will be influenced by a recovering global economy and New Zealand’s hosting of the Rugby World Cup.

Bruce Bassett, Ministry of Tourism Research Manager, said that while the short-term expenditure forecasts were low due to the impacts of the global recession, the longer term outlook for tourism remains very positive.

“The tourism industry is a very resilient sector and even in the current challenging environment international spend has held up remarkably well. These forecasts reinforce a positive medium to long-term outlook for the sector, with international visitor arrivals expected to increase by 2.5% per annum, and expenditure by these visitors at the faster rate of 4.7% per annum.” Regional tourism forecasts to 2015 were also released today for each of New Zealand’s 30 Regional Tourism Organisation (RTOs) areas.

The New Zealand tourism forecasts have been prepared annually by the Ministry of Tourism since 1999. Statistical modelling and expert industry input is used to determine the forecasts.

NOTE: International Visitor Arrival forecasts were released earlier in August 2009 and are available on the Ministry of Tourism research website (refer link above).

ENDS

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