Australia and NZ - economic data, event previews

Australia and New Zealand - economic data and event previews

Australia

Aust. housing finance (%m/m, Jun.) -The number of home loans issued probably posted another solid gain in June, thanks to still-firm demand from first home buyers (FHBs). Since the FHBs’ grant was expanded in October, the number of FHBs in the loan market has hit a string of record highs; another record should be hit in June.

NAB business confidence (Index, Jul.) - Business confidence probably improved last month thanks to longer “green shoots” offshore, a firmer AUD, still-strong consumer spending, and improved access to equity capital.

Westpac MI consumer confidence (%m/m, Aug.) - The consumer confidence index should have stayed above the neutral level of 100 for the third straight month. More positive signs on the global outlook, rising equity prices, appreciating AUD, and the resilience of the labour market will have boosted confidence. The only drag will be rising expectations that official interest rates will rise, not fall.

Aust. labour price index (%oya, 2Q) - With the jobless rate rising just 0.1% in 2Q and employment falling by less than 6,000, wage growth probably held up. The labour price index should show a rise of 0.9%q/q in 2Q. The annual growth rate in total labour costs will, though, continue easing to 3.9%, the slowest rate in two years.

RBA Governor Stevens’ semi-annual testimony to Parliament - We do not expect a shift in tone from last week’s commentary, but the Governor may provide new information in answer to MP’s questions. Governor Stevens will make a prepared statement, which will echo the upbeat tone of last week’s commentary, and then take questions from Members of Parliament.

New Zealand

NZ retail sales - We expect a fall in retail sales values. Kiwi retailers suffered a big setback in June, with electronic card transactions posting the biggest monthly drop since late 2007. The quarterly retail sales numbers are, of course, important for our 2Q GDP growth forecast. We expect a 0.4%q/q rise in retail volumes in the June quarter.

Report With Table (pdf)

ENDS

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