Media Statement
Forecast Tourism Growth Slows in short-term
Embargoed until 11:00am, Tuesday 4 August 2009
International visitor arrivals are forecast to grow by an average of 2.5% per annum over the next seven years, forecasts
released by the Ministry of Tourism show.
By 2015 international visitor numbers are forecast to reach 2.9 million, up by 18.6% or 455,000 more visitors than we
get now.
Ministry of Tourism Research Manager, Bruce Bassett, said that given the substantial impacts of the global recession and
more recently the Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, the forecasts for tourism have been revised back from forecasts made last
year (an annual average growth rate of 4%).
“So, while the current forecasts are lower, the overall outlook for tourism remains very positive.
“Over the balance of 2009, we expect to see a drop of arrivals of around 4.2%, but after that we expect to see growth
re-emerging.
“With a slow and uneven recovery from the global recession, we expect to see growth of around 2.5% in 2010. This will be
followed by a solid rebound in arrivals of 6.5% in 2011 as the global economy further recovers and with a boost from New
Zealand’s hosting of the Rugby World Cup.
“For the remainder of the forecast period a sound growth level of 3.5% per year is expected.
The strongest markets over the forecast period are expected to be Australia and China, which are forecast to provide
two-thirds of the total growth. Other markets are expected to generate more modest growth.
“The forecasts provide the tourism industry with a realistic outlook of the sector’s longer term prospects. The short
term is clearly challenging, but recovery is on the horizon, even if it may be slow and uneven across our various
markets.
“Armed with this information, the challenge is now for the industry to work towards exceeding these forecasts.
The New Zealand tourism forecasts have been prepared annually by the Ministry of Tourism since 1999. Statistical
modelling and expert industry input is used to determine the forecasts.
ENDS