Rabobank Agribusiness Review July 2009

Prepared by the bank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory division, the report provides monthly commentary on New Zealand and Australian economic and agricultural conditions. Highlighted in this report:

Despite rainfall in New Zealand remaining below average in some regions, particularly in the South Island, all regions have recorded moisture levels at field capacity. Rainfall across Australia was slightly below average in June, but the good news was that most of the bigger falls were within the Murray Darling Basin, recording 52% more rainfall than the long-term mean.

Taken as a whole, global economic data still supports a broad based global recovery taking hold by the end of the year. The IMF July Economic Update (8 July) projects that the global economic rebound next year will be stronger than it forecast in April.

The latest economic data from New Zealand shows an improvement in conditions ahead, but the recession still has further to run. Australian economic data remains difficult to read, with retail sales surprising on the upside and better-than-expected employment data.

World grain prices collapsed in June, with wheat and corn prices impacted heavily. This was due to revised acreage and grain stocks in the US and a weaker macroeconomic picture. One key concern to the Australian grain crop this year is the increased likelihood of an El Niño climate event, which can lead to severe yield penalties across south eastern Australia.

Young cattle prices have experienced a seasonal increase over the past month. New Zealand farm gate beef prices haven’t yet shown signs of the usual seasonal lift, as weaker US manufacturing beef prices and the higher exchange rate have impacted on New Zealand exports.

International demand for dairy remains weak. Despite recent reductions in the price of grain and fertiliser, and a strong start to the season in many regions, the current low prices are keeping returns under pressure for many farmers.

The Baltic Dry Index and oil prices have eased back from year-to-date peaks. Oil prices are now trading back below USD65/barrel.

To view the full report, please click on the link below:

Australia and New Zealand Agribusiness Review

ENDS

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