Cairns Lockie Mortgage Commentary
Issue 2008 / 21 21 November 2008
Welcome to the twenty-first fortnightly Cairns Lockie Mortgage Commentary for 2008. We aim to keep you informed on
developments at Cairns Lockie, Home Loans and the mortgage market in general. Previous issues of this commentary can be
found on our website http://www.emortgage.co.nz/newsletters.htm
The Money Market
This evening (5 pm on 20 November 2008) the money markets were at the following levels:
Official cash rate 6.50% (unchanged)
90 day bill rate 5.80 (down from 6.65)
1 year swap rate 5.28 (down from 6.00)
3 year swap rate 5.56 (down from 6.20)
10 year bond rate 5.60 (up from 6.01)
Kiwi dollar 0.5411 (down from 0.5920)
Interest Rates Again
Our Reserve Bank next reviews the Official Cash Rate, on 4 December. The market expects it to drop by at least 50 basis
points but, given the higher than expected drop in Australia two weeks ago and the large drop of 1.5% in the UK
recently, our Governor may well drop our rate by 1.0%. Dropping cash rates has been used as a major tool internationally
to try and restore market confidence. The cash rate in the USA is at 1.0% - the same level as in the Depression of the
1930's. The UK's cash rate at 3.5% is the lowest it has been for 54 years. The Governor of the Reserve Bank in Australia
is expecting to cut rates again at their next review. These are bold but positive moves - borrowing costs are a large
component of most household budgets, as well as for businesses, and any lowering of these is welcome. It will be
interesting to hear our Governor’s comments on our economy when he gives his views next on 4 December.
Rental Growth in Sydney
Residential rents are continuing to grow in Sydney, as the market remains tight and housing affordability continues to
be poor. The latest Housing NSW data shows rents in New South Wales jumping by 10.3% in the September quarter compared
with a year ago. The median rent in NSW is now $320 a week - a 3.2% rise over the three months ending September. The
suburb of Botany Bay saw the biggest jump of 35.4% in median rent (to $325 per week) for one-bedroom units over this
period. Over the past 12 months, the suburb had 42.9% rental growth. While housing prices have fallen in recent months,
they remain well up on levels of three or five years ago. In NSW, the modest drop in housing prices, combined with
soaring rents, lower interest rates and rising population, is leading to a stronger demand for property.
We Have Funds to Lend
Our finance company, General Finance Limited has funds to lend. We are particularly interested in bridging or short term
advances. Our maximum loan size is around $300,000 and we can advance up to 70% of the property’s value. Preference is
given to first mortgages but we will consider sound second mortgages. All lending is secured over residential
properties. For further information please do not hesitate to contact one of our lenders.
Election and the Housing Market
As a result of the new National (and coalition) government, there will likely be some positive changes within the
general housing market. Two important factors that will occur are that housing will become more affordable due to a
mixture of lower mortgage rates and further tax cuts. This will benefit existing homeowners and those expecting to enter
into the housing market. Other important changes likely are streamlining of the Resource Management and Building Acts,
which should speed up processing times and reduce compliance costs. The new Government is talking about giving some
relief to those who have problems with leaky homes but no details have been released yet. We believe that if the
Government will allow state housing tenants to buy their existing homes, this will allow some of these people to become
home owners and release funds to build more properties.
Our current mortgage interest rates are as follows:
Variable rate 9.50%
Six-month fixed rate 8.60
One-year fixed rate 8.30
Two-year fixed rate 8.30
Three-year fixed rate 8.45
Four-year fixed rate 8.60
Five-year fixed rate 8.70
Line of credit facility 9.55
ENDS