Property Market Still Edging Upwards

Sunday, 7 August 2005

Property Market Still Edging Upwards

Statistics released today by QV show the growth in property values is continuing to edge upwards, as residential properties increased in value by 14.3% over the 12 months to July, up slightly from 14.2% annual growth to June.

With property values across New Zealand still growing in excess of 14% annually, the predicted slowdown in the property market is not yet being seen.

“There are still more areas throughout the country where property values are growing at increasing rates versus those that are slowing. In addition to this, some of the main centres including Hamilton (24.8%) and Dunedin (21.4%) are still showing strong growth, which indicates the market is remaining buoyant” says QV’s Blue Hancock.

The growth in residential property values in a number of provincial areas also reflects the level of buoyancy in the market, including New Plymouth (35.4%), Gisborne (28.9%), Whangarei (25.2%), and Rotorua (20.5%). “These areas represent affordable options for first home buyers and investors, which is contributing to the strong growth in these areas,” Mr Hancock said.

Auckland City residential properties grew 5.4% over the 12 months to July, outdone by their neighbours Papakura (12.7%), North Shore (11.3%), Waitakere (11.3%) and Manukau (10.7%), again reflecting buyer demand for increased affordability over a central city location.

The Queenstown market appears to be on the increase again with values up 11.3% compared to 1.5% in January, while Tasman has reversed its declines and is back showing marginal growth of 2.7%.

…ends/

For further information on property market activity contact: Blue Hancock QV Valuations Tel: 03 543 8350 Mob: 0274 384 583 Email: blue.hancock@qv.co.nz

For enquiries regarding the calculation methodology or the process for release contact: Steve Langridge GM QV Online Tel: 04 495 0321 Mob: 021 677 026 Email: steve.langridge@qv.co.nz

Residential Price Movement Questions and Answers:

The following information is provided as background to the Residential Price Movement statistics.

What is the Residential Price Movement Report?

The Residential Price Movement Report is a new set of residential property statistics that provides an estimate of the change in residential property values over the previous 12 months for areas throughout New Zealand. Residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 months are compared to the same period of the previous year to identify the annual percentage change in residential property values. The residential sales included are for residential houses, apartments, flats, home and income properties, and houses converted to flats.

Why has the Residential Price Movement Report been developed?

The Residential Price Movement Report has been developed to provide a timely indicator of residential property value movement, using the latest residential sales data compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period.

QV has previously only released property statistics quarterly. QV’s measure of price movement has been the Quarterly House Price Index (QHPI). The QHPI only includes sales that have been notified to the Territorial Authority that sold within the quarter. As sales of properties can sometimes take 4-6 weeks to settle, the QHPI is released after an extended period to incorporate as much sales activity from the quarter, which results in increased statistical accuracy, but also a less timely output.

As the Residential Price Movement Report uses the sales compiled by QV over a 3 month period, rather than the sales that necessarily sold within that period, the Residential Price Movement Report can be released on a more frequent basis, providing a timelier indicator of property value movement. The Residential Price Movement Report also includes sales activity in other residential property sectors including apartments and flats.

How frequently will the Residential Price Movement Report be released?

The Residential Price Movement Report data will be available to the media on a monthly basis. It will be released to the media for publication on either the second or third Monday of each month.

How current is the Residential Price Movement data?

The data contained in the Residential Price Movement Report is based on the residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period.

For example, the Residential Price Movement Report as at January 2005 will include sales compiled by QV up until 31 January 2005 and include sales compiled since 1 November 2004.

Why does the Residential Price Movement Report include sales compiled by QV over a 3 month period?

Sales are included over a 3 month period rather than a single month to ensure that there are sufficient sales volumes to calculate statistically accurate property value growth.

How is the Residential Price Movement data calculated?

The Residential Price Movement Report includes two indicators of property value; the property value growth, and average sales prices.

Property Value Growth The Property Value Growth uses QV’s House Price Index methodology, which generates a residential index for each area by recognising the sales price of each property sold compared to its capital value. This ensures the index provides a measure of change in property values, without fluctuations caused by higher sales volumes in one or more property sectors (e.g. high volumes of apartment sales or investment properties).

Residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period are compared to the sales compiled by QV for the same period the previous year to identify the annual percentage change in property values.

Average Sales Prices The Average Sales Prices calculated in the Residential Price Movement Report are based on residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period.

Does property value growth reflect a change in average sales prices?

No. Property Value Growth does not reflect a change in average sales prices, which are only given to enable a comparison of sale prices for one month compared to the last. Property Value Growth uses QV’s House Price Index methodology to generate a residential index for each area by recognising the sales price of each property sold compared to its capital value.

Why does QV recommend using the Property Value Growth rather than Average Sales Prices to verify the change in property values over time?

Average Sales Prices are only provided in the Residential Price Movement Report as a broad indicator of property values in an area to assist comparisons between areas. QV recommends referring to the property value growth to verify change in property values over time, rather than the average sales price, as the average sales prices can be impacted by the types and categories of properties selling, or low volumes of property sales. When was the Residential Price Movement Report first released?

The Residential Price Movement Report was first released for the period ending January 31 2005. The QV Quarterly House Price Index, which measures the movement of house values over time, is available back until 1989. QV is also able to produce statistics using its database going back to 1985 for most areas.

Why does the Residential Price Movement Report provide an ‘estimate of property value’ only?

Data in the Residential Price Movement Report provides estimates only of property value, and should not be considered ‘final’ statistics, as not all sales for the 3 month period will be included due to the time the data is released. This is because some sales within the 3 month period will not have been notified to the Territorial Authority in time for inclusion in the Residential Price Movement Report data. Notification of the sale to the Territorial Authority does not occur until after the sale has been settled and documents forwarded by the solicitor. This generally introduces a lag of 4 to 6 weeks before the Territorial Authority records the sale. QV produces final property statistics which are released after an extended period to incorporate a greater level of sales activity, resulting in a more statistically accurate output. Final property statistics, including the QV Quarterly House Price Index, can be purchased online at www.qv.co.nz.

Why do some Territorial Authorities show ‘N/A’ (Not Available)?

Territorial authorities may show ‘N/A’ if there is insufficient data available at the time of publication to produce statistically accurate outputs. This may occur when there has been very low sales activity in an area, or alternatively when QV has not been supplied sufficient residential sales volumes by a Territorial Authority for a particular period.

Why does QV caution against using statistics with low volumes of sales?

Statistics based on low sales volumes should be used with caution, as low volumes of sales are insufficient to create statistically accurate outputs. Any statistics calculated based on sales volumes of less than 50 sales appear in Italics in the Residential Price Movement Report data.

How are the regions and city areas defined?

Property Value Growth statistics are provided for each council area throughout New Zealand. Five main urban areas (Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin) also have property value growth statistics available for areas within the cities. These city areas have been defined through consultation with QV Valuers that have local knowledge of each area.

Property Value Growth Statistics are not provided for individual suburbs, as most suburbs have insufficient sales volumes to ensure statistically accurate property value growth calculations.

Where does QV source the property data?

QV maintains a national database on Property Information that it creates by sourcing updates of the District Valuation Roll from all NZ Territorial Local Authorities/councils.

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