We have just published the following research.
Data Flash (New Zealand) Building Consents - July 2002
A 274% surge in apartment consents to a historic high drove new dwelling consents 12.4% mom higher in July. Excluding
apartments, a more moderate - but still steady - rise of 4.2% mom was recorded. Such a high level of consent issuance
for apartments is unlikely to be sustained. Therefore, we expect total August consents to decline around by 8% mom, even
given further growth in consents for single unit dwellings.
Based on past relationships with house sales, the trend rise in dwelling consents should continue for a month or two yet
before beginning to moderate. House sales have declined by around 10% over the past three months and typically provide
around a 4-month lead on trends in dwelling consent issuance. Non-residential building consents with a value of $286m
were issued in July - the highest level recorded since October 2001. The three-month running total was 7.7% higher than
a year earlier.
Darren Gibbs, Senior Economist
***The attached research constitutes Deutsche Bank's proprietary information*** This, along with an extensive range of
other publications, is available on our web site http://research.gm.db.com