Covering period of Thursday 27th February - Monday 3rd March

Key points

• Summer is ending on a sunny note.
• South Island to expect rain this weekend and cooler temperatures next week.
• Three tropical cyclone systems named in the Southwest Pacific this week.
• MetService are monitoring Tropical Cyclone Alfred that remains an active system in the Coral Sea.

Summer started off poorly with a long streak of cooler than usual weather for some, and little to no seasonal rain for others and is, making way to a cold start to Autumn. While the weekend will be dry in most places, wet weather is on the cards for the upper North Island and the lower South Island. After a slow start to the tropical cyclone season, this week saw a burst of activity in the tropics, and MetService is closely monitoring the situation.

MetService Meteorologist Surprise Mhlongo said, “In contrast to how the year started, this season is coming to an end with sunny skies and warm temperatures, making it a suitable weekend to all the activities across the country.”

The eastern areas of the country are expected to be the warmest, with maximum temperatures reaching upper 20s to low 30s. Despite the warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies, showers may be part of the weekend in the upper North Island.

The dry weekend is going to be cut short for the lower South Island, with two successive fronts making their way from Saturday around midday.

“The second, and likely most rain-bearing front is expected to arrive on Sunday afternoon, moving up the Island in the beginning of next week. This will introduce a gradual drop in temperatures, with Alexandra dropping from a maximum of 30C on Sunday to 17C on Tuesday”, added Mhlongo.

While it had been settled weather in New Zealand, three tropical cyclone systems have been named in the Southwest Pacific this week. Two of these systems, Tropical Cyclone Seru and Former Cyclone Rae, have now moved away from the larger island groups. However, Tropical Cyclone Alfred remains an active system in the Coral Sea.

“Where Alfred heads next is the big question for us in New Zealand. For the next few days, Alfred is expected to slowly sink southwards through the Coral Sea. Next week, there is considerable variation in the potential path that Alfred could take”, said Mhlongo.

The large area of high pressure that has been a feature of our weather recently has been helping to keep the most active weather systems away from us and will be a key player in how close Alfred gets to our shores next week.

At the moment, there's still a wide range of possible tracks in where Alfred could go and how, or if, it will impact us. We are monitoring the system closely along with our colleagues over the Tasman, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and will keep you updated with all the latest information through our Severe Weather Outlook and our daily Tropical Cyclone Bulletin.

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