10 December 2024

A terrorist attack in New Zealand remains a realistic possibility following an annual review of the National Terrorism Threat Level by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS).

The National Terrorism Threat Level remains at LOW, indicating that a terrorist attack is a realistic possibility. This follows an annual assessment by the Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG), an inter-agency group hosted and led by the NZSIS. The assessment is based on a range of classified intelligence and publicly available information.

“It’s important to understand that keeping the National Terrorism Threat Level at LOW indicates an attack is a realistic possibility amid what is a deteriorating global security environment,” Director-General of Security Andrew Hampton said.

“Evolving global and domestic trends will continue to drive extremist sentiment in New Zealand over the next 12 months. There is an increasingly diverse range of violent extremist narratives being expressed globally and New Zealanders can quickly connect to these narratives through online networks.

“Conflicts and acts of extreme violence overseas have an impact on New Zealand’s threat environment, sometimes compounding with domestic issues. The vast majority of individuals engaged in these issues will express their views peacefully and lawfully. Yet a small number of individuals may see violence as a legitimate way to further their cause. The pathway to radicalisation and potential violence is becoming shorter, and these individuals may act unpredictably. This means the threat environment could change with little warning.

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“Online networks enable people to connect without knowing each other’s real identities and motivations. The NZSIS is particularly concerned about the impact of the online environment on young people, who are being exposed to and influenced by violent extremism in ways we haven’t seen before.”

Last week the NZSIS joined the Five Eyes security intelligence and law enforcement agencies in publishing a joint paper to highlight a shared concern about the radicalisation of young people. The paper includes two New Zealand case studies where threats were identified and intervention has occurred.

“The volume and accessibility of extremist views online is worrying. The NZSIS is highly aware of the impact this is having on some communities, such as those affected by conflicts in the Middle East. The sense of concern in these communities is real and understandable.

“The known individuals of concern in New Zealand mostly adhere to well recognised categories of violent extremist aligned ideologies. However, there is now a growing threat from individuals embracing a fluid mix of ideologies, conspiracy theories and highly personalised grievances, who are fixated on violence, and whose intentions are difficult to assess.

“The most plausible form of violent extremist attack in New Zealand continues to be someone who acts alone and is either self-radicalised or inspired by like-minded individuals, using readily available weapons. Attacks are likely to occur with little to no warning, undertaken by individuals who may have taken steps to avoid detection.

“The most fundamental mission of the NZSIS is the safety of New Zealand and New Zealanders. We have continued to build our ability to respond to this evolving threat environment, including through stronger collaboration with domestic and international partners, increased online capabilities and broad community engagement.

“National security is not something the NZSIS can exclusively own or solve. Everyone has a part to play by reporting issues of concern when they see them. This can be done directly to the NZSIS, or to our partners at New Zealand Police, who we work closely with to detect and disrupt threats,” Mr Hampton said.

The NZSIS has a range of public resources to help with this, including the Know the Signs guide to identifying the signs of violent extremism. This details behaviours and activities by individuals which could be concerning, and how to report them.

The 2024 NZSIS Security Threat Environment report also has more information about the national security threats facing New Zealand, including case studies and a range of practical advice.

Notes:

i. The National Terrorism Threat Level has been at LOW since November 2022. It was raised from LOW to HIGH immediately following the terrorist attacks on Christchurch masjidian in March 2019, and revised to MEDIUM a month after the attacks.

ii. The National Terrorism Threat Level is continually assessed by the Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG) and can change at any time in response to global and domestic events and intelligence reporting. It is also subject to an annual review.

iii. The National Terrorism Threat Level informs relevant government agencies about the likelihood of a terrorist attack in New Zealand to ensure that they are appropriately placed to mitigate any risks.

iv. Assessment of the National Terrorism Threat Level is in consultation with agencies including New Zealand Security Intelligence Service, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, New Zealand Police, Department of Corrections, New Zealand Defence Force, and Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.

Further information about CTAG can be found here: https://www.nzsis.govt.nz/our-work/countering-violent-extremism-and-terrorism/combined-threat-assessment-group

Questions and Answers – New Zealand Terrorism Threat Level

How often is the National Terrorism Threat Level assessed?

The National Terrorism Threat Level is formally reviewed annually, but can change at any time based on the current intelligence picture. It considers the domestic terrorism context and relevant international threat factors, taking into account both classified intelligence and open source information.

Who decides the National Terrorism Threat Level?

The New Zealand National Terrorism Threat Level is set by the Director-General of Security on advice from the Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG), an inter-agency group hosted and led by the NZSIS. Partner agencies in the national security sector are consulted on the assessment.

Why have ongoing global conflicts like the Middle East not changed the National Terrorism Threat Level?

Enduring conflicts across the Middle East continue to adversely affect the global threat environment, however this has not, to date, had a significant effect on New Zealand’s overall domestic violent extremism threat environment. In New Zealand, concerns aligned to these conflicts have typically been voiced through lawful protest, and we have not seen escalation to physical acts of violent extremism.

The full effect of the widening Israel/Gaza conflict on the domestic threat environment is unlikely to be understood for some time. Over the next 12 months, we expect to see a continuation of anti-Semitic and Islamophobic narratives in New Zealand.

What does LOW mean in terms of the probability of an attack occurring?

LOW means a terrorist attack is assessed as a realistic possibility. “Realistic possibility” has a likelihood of between 25-50%.

Why is our threat level not the same as countries like Australia and the United Kingdom?

Some countries have changed their domestic threat levels. While this is done in the context of the evolving global threat picture, these decisions reflect specific issues and events within these countries.

Each country also uses its own language to describe its threat level. Next year CTAG intends to review the language and definitions it uses to identify opportunities for closer alignment with key partners.

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