Circana today hosted its annual State of the Industry event, bringing together FMCG industry professionals to discuss the economic outlook for the year ahead, recommendations on how FMCG manufacturers and retailers can maximise opportunities, and insights into consumer behaviour.

Amid ongoing economic pressures, New Zealand’s supermarket sector is maintaining strong consumer spending, even as many other retail categories struggle to weather the storm. With inflation impacting household budgets and a 30% rise in food prices since 2019, Kiwis have adjusted their spending habits to prioritise value, making supermarkets a preferred destination for essentials and affordable meal solutions.

Supermarket resilience is driven by a focus on value. As costs remain high, many New Zealanders are cooking at home more frequently, with Circana’s latest What’s For Dinner New Zealand survey revealing that 69% now prepare meals at home at least five nights a week.

Consumers are making thoughtful choices, meal-planning, buying in bulk, and focusing on budget-friendly centre-aisle staples like rice, pasta, and noodles. Supermarket data shows a record 4.9kg of rice purchased per capita this year, highlighting a shift toward affordable meal components.

Changing lifestyles are also fuelling growth in the convenience and frozen categories. Consumers are finding creative ways to recreate “fakeaway” meals at home and exploring ethnic cuisines—particularly Asian, Indian, and Mexican dishes—as they seek flavourful, cost-effective alternatives to dining out. This trend is propelling growth in frozen food, ready-to-eat meals, and on-the-go snack solutions, providing flexibility without compromising taste.

Health and wellness trends continue to reshape the grocery landscape, with increasing demand for products that meet dietary preferences and support wellbeing. An industry survey shows that, despite economic constraints, three out of four FMCG suppliers are prioritising new product development in the next 12 months. This drive for innovation, especially in health-focused, indulgent, flavour-rich, and “free-from” products, has led to a 10% rise in sales from new launches, even with a slight dip in total product launches.

Julie Bramley, Insights Director – New Zealand, Circana said: “While many retail categories are facing headwinds, New Zealand’s supermarket sector remains resilient, strategically positioned to withstand economic challenges.

“By focusing on innovation and value-driven solutions, supermarkets and suppliers are well-prepared to meet changing consumer needs, ensuring growth and stability in an unpredictable market,” said Bramley.

Keeping on top of data and trends is crucial for businesses to ensure they keep delivering what consumers are looking for.

About Circana

Circana is a leading advisor on the complexity of consumer behaviour. Through superior technology, advanced analytics, cross-industry data, and deep expertise, we provide clarity that helps almost 7,000 of the world’s leading brands and retailers take action and unlock business growth. We understand more about the complete consumer, the complete store, and the complete wallet so our clients can go beyond the data to apply insights, ignite innovation, meet consumer demand, and outpace the competition.

© Scoop Media