Largely settled and fine weather continues to be the main feature over northern and central Aotearoa New Zealand through to Tuesday evening, thanks to a broad area of high pressure. However, a series of weak fronts bring some patchy rain to western and southern parts of the South Island. 

MetService Meteorologist Dom Barry says, “As we head into Wednesday, warm and moist northwesterlies develop over the South Island, bringing rain to western and southern parts of the South Island. Fiordland has a Heavy Rain Watch in force from Wednesday to Thursday, which is likely to be upgraded to an Orange Heavy Rain Warning in the near future.”

With this warmer air also comes warmer temperatures – many places across the east of the country will see higher than average maximum and minimum temperatures later this week.

Barry continues, “For the easternmost places like Christchurch, Oamaru, Napier and Hastings, maximums in the mid-twenties can be expected. Overnight temperatures will stay warm as well, in some cases only being a couple of degrees cooler than the day’s maximum, which might make sleeping a struggle for some.”

A series of fronts move up the South Island on Thursday, bringing rain to southern and western parts of the Island, as the high moves off to the northeast of the country, keeping things mainly fine and dry in the north.

While the fine, warm weather looks set to hold on for Hawke’s Bay’s anniversary day on Friday, the weather is looking more unsettled elsewhere as rain and wind returns.

Barry explains, “Low pressure is returning at the end of this week meaning some wetter weather is in store over the long weekend. With some drier weather possible for Labour Day, it is worth checking the forecast to get the best out of the weekend.”

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System 

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) - take cover now:

• This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
• When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
• Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning. 
• In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

• When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
• In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

• When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
• In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

• Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
• Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
• During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

• When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
• Typically issued 1 - 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
• During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

• To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
• Issued routinely once or twice a day
• Recommendation: Plan 

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